U.S.-Iran Strikes Put $100 Oil Back in Focus

U.S.-Iran strikes reignite fears of a prolonged Middle East conflict as Hormuz tensions push regional oil benchmarks above $100.

Rising Bond Yields Turn Oil’s Rally Into a Demand Risk

- Global bond yields have surged to their highest since 2008, as rising oil prices perpetuate fears of longer-than-assumed inflation, in turn creating a cycle of lower demand further down the road.

- The rally in bond yields started in earnest after new Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Walsh vowed to finally tame US inflation, currently at 3.4%, sending yields on the 10-Year Treasury bonds to 4.76%.

- The bond spiral extended into other developed economies, with rates on 10-year Japanese bonds touching a 30-year high and moved above 3%, whilst 10-year UK bonds surged to 5.2%.

- Higher yields raise borrowing costs for households and companies, slowing vehicle purchases, air travel, construction, manufacturing and freight – all leading to demand destruction – whilst simultaneously pushing up the cost of drilling, pipelines and large upstream developments.

- Marking a return to contractionary monetary policy, the market is pricing an almost 60% chance that the Federal Reserve will hike rates by a quarter-point at its meeting this month.

Market Movers

- US midstream giant ONEOK (NYSE:OKE) has acquired Brazos Midstream's natural gas gathering and processing assets in West Texas for a consideration of $4.4 billion, boosting its gas processing capacity by 1.2 bcf/d.

- Oil majors Shell (LON:SHEL) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) have signed a preliminary agreement with the government of Ghana to enter the South Deepwater Tano oil block, in water depths of 3,000m, the country's first new offshore license since 2018.

- Norway's state oil firm Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) has signed its 2nd binding offtake agreement, alongside project partner Standard Lithium, for the SW Arkansas lithium project, with the LG Energy Solution contract marking a major step towards an FID later this year.

- UK-listed upstream specialist Energean (LON: ENOG) is reportedly in exclusive negotiations with UK major BP (NYSE:BP) to acquire part of the latter's Egyptian upstream portfolio, in a deal valued around $1 billion.

- Norwegian upstream firm DNO (OSL: DNO) is set to buy UK upstream independent Capricorn Energy for $0.4 billion after outbidding the offer of Kurdistan-focused driller Genel Energy, boosting its portfolio with assets in onshore Egypt.

Tuesday, September 01, 2026

The first exchange of direct US-Iran attacks in a month has reignited fears that conflict in the Middle East might well last into 2027, with US President Trump threatening further strikes after its attack on Larak Island. Washington’s sanctions on Tehran are making Hormuz transits ever more difficult, with Saudi Aramco’s attempt to boost flows from the Persian Gulf immediately nipped in the bud by Tehran’s drone attacks. Whilst ICE Brent is currently trading at $92 per barrel, Middle Eastern benchmarks have moved past $100 per barrel again.

Hormuz Recovery Stalls After New Tanker Strikes. Two VLCCs carrying Saudi oil (Sidr and Senegal Prosperity) were hit by projectiles while exiting the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, threatening the fragile rebound in Gulf oil exports, just as Aramco lifted August loadings in the Gulf to 700,000 b/d.

Trump Slams Brakes on Fuel Economy Rules. The Trump administration is preparing to slash US vehicle fuel-economy requirements, rolling back stricter Biden-era standards and requiring a fleetwide average of 34.5 miles/gallon by 2031, down from the previous 50.4 miles/gallon target.

Texas Refiners Brace for Edouard. Saudi-owned Motiva and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) are preparing their refineries in Port Arthur and Beaumont for the arrival of Tropical Storm Edouard, activating storm-response measures as Edouard is expected to turn into a hurricane and make landfall today.

US Secures Major Venezuelan Oil Access Deal. Venezuela has signed a long-term agreement covering 17 oil fields with more than 65 billion barrels of proven reserves, granting U.S.-backed operators (mostly Alejandro Betancourt's NABEP) a leading role in upstream development. Related: Norway Wants Europe’s Energy Market, Without Sharing Its Trade-Offs

Pemex Pushes Supplier Debt into the Next Decade. Mexico's state-owned Pemex has restructured roughly $15 billion in supplier and contractor obligations to relieve prompt cash pressures, extending $7.4 billion of repayment beyond 2030 and lowering its 2027 payout total to $1.3 billion.

Trans Mountain Seeks Final Expansion Push. Buoyed by Asian demand, Canada's federally owned pipeline giant Trans Mountain has applied to expand Its pipeline system by a further 210,000 b/d, aiming to lift total capacity to nearly 1.2 million b/d by late 2028 at an estimated cost of $2.9 billion.

Russia Expands LNG Shadow Fleet. Russia has doubled the fleet serving its sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project to 20 vessels, accelerating efforts to sustain LNG exports to China via the Northern Sea Route despite Western sanctions, just as August LNG loadings soared to a record high of 650,000 tonnes.

Zinc Rally Hits Four-Year High. Zinc prices climbed to their highest level since 2022, hitting $3,980 per tonne this week, as mine disruptions, constrained Iranian supply and falling concentrate availability squeezed the market, the 5th monthly gain for the best-performing metal of 2026.

Solar Overtakes Coal in China's Capacity Race. China's installed solar power capacity has surpassed coal for the first time, reaching 1,286 GW and accounting for 31.5% of the country's power generation fleet, with solar generation rising 15% year-over-year to 802 billion kWh in Jan-July 2026.

Saudi Arabia Turns to Fresh Borrowing Amid Wartime Strains. Saudi Arabia is exploring at least $8 billion in new loans, underscoring Riyadh's push to diversify funding sources as the Iran war dents economic activity, with the kingdom posting a 4.8% year-over-year GDP contraction in Q2 2026.

Bessent Signals Weekly Iran Sanctions Blitz. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington is preparing to roll out new Iran-focused secondary sanctions every week, initially targeting banks and financial institutions, intensifying its "maximum economic pressure" campaign against Tehran.

Europe’s Industry Pushes to Delay EU Methane Rules. 20 energy industry associations are urging the EU to postpone its methane emissions regulation for 3 years until 2030, warning of legal risks for oil and gas importers as any long-term deals would willingly and knowingly breach applicable EU law.

Egypt Targets Q4 Restart for Damietta LNG. Egypt expects the Damietta FSRU damaged in a July drone attack to resume operations in Q4 2026, claiming that the loss of 5 mtpa regasification capacity did not impact the Egyptian market thanks to rising domestic natural gas production.

Chile's Economy Stumbles as Storms Hit Copper Output. Chile's economic momentum weakened sharply in July as severe winter storms disrupted mining operations and pushed copper production to its lowest July level since 2011, posting a 10% year-on-year drop to 403,424 metric tonnes.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com