The developments in the Congress appear to have forced the BJP to defer the announcement of a new state party president, which has been pending for months.
AdvertisementA BJP insider said Shivakumar, or DK as he is popularly known, has not yet proven himself as an able administrator.
BJP leaders said Shivakumar is a successful businessman with a base in Bengaluru and maintains strong bonds and influence over several BJP leaders, including MLAs, from the region.
“Even if Vijayendra is appointed again, transitioning from Yediyurappa to him in the context of keeping the Lingayat votes still has challenges,” said a state party leader.
Several party leaders say that Congress having a Vokkaliga leader leading it has strengthened Vijayendra’s prospects of leading the BJP in Karnataka as the party looks to consolidate its support among Lingayats.
The Congress high command has carried out the transition of power in Karnataka without encountering any hurdles, elevating Doddalahalli Kempegowda Shivakumar as Chief Minister, and in the process appears to have unsettled the NDA and the BJP’s political strategies in the state.
The developments in the Congress appear to have forced the BJP to defer the announcement of a new state party president, which has been pending for months. On Thursday, the party announced new chiefs for Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and Tripura.
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A BJP insider said Shivakumar, or DK as he is popularly known, has not yet proven himself as an able administrator. But if he manages to do that in the next couple of years, things could get tricky for the party, he added.
“Among the electorate in the state, he is not known as an able administrator who can deliver good governance. DK, who has an image in Karnataka of a go-getter with his money and muscle power, just has to get his governance right. Nothing else can then hold him back. If he delivers good governance, the NDA will have to go beyond counting on the anti-incumbency factor,” said the source.
Since replacing the popular and astute Siddaramaiah, Shivakumar has so far got his optics right. He has not uttered a single word against the high command despite “an undue” delay in keeping its promise to make him the CM after the first half of the party’s term. Siddaramaiah has put up a happy face in spite of his unwillingness to step down and Shivakumar has made it appear he is taking up the CM’s post with his predecessor’s blessings. On Thursday, after Siddaramaiah announced his resignation, photos emerged of Shivakumar touching his feet.
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With the oath-taking ceremony a couple of days away, the CM-elect will look to ensure his powerful Vokkaliga community, which makes up an estimated 10% of the population, locks in behind the Congress ahead of the 2028 Assembly elections.
BJP leaders said Shivakumar is a successful businessman with a base in Bengaluru and maintains strong bonds and influence over several BJP leaders, including MLAs, from the region. “How the party will deal with Shivakumar at the top is still to be seen, given the long association many of these leaders have with him,” said a former BJP MP.
“The Enforcement Directorate (ED) had initiated a (money laundering) probe against Shivakumar. The party may have an idea on centring its campaign on the corrupt image of the government. We have to see how it is going to unfold,” the leader said.
The Lingayat challenge
For the BJP, which heavily banks on the Lingayat vote bank comprising an estimated 11.1% of the population, keeping this support base intact is a challenge as the party has many Lingayat leaders who pull it in different directions, but none as strong as former CM B S Yediyurappa. While his son and current state BJP president B Y Vijayendra is still waiting for his formal appointment under BJP’s new national president Nitin Nabin, another Lingayat leader, Basanagouda Patil Yatnal, has been expelled for six years for anti-party activities.
“Even if Vijayendra is appointed again, transitioning from Yediyurappa to him in the context of keeping the Lingayat votes still has challenges,” said a state party leader.
After former Union Minister and ex-state party chief Ananth Kumar – a Brahmin leader who died in 2018 – and Yediyurappa, the BJP has not had a popular leader with mass support at the helm.
Several party leaders say that Congress having a Vokkaliga leader leading it has strengthened Vijayendra’s prospects of leading the BJP in Karnataka as the party looks to consolidate its support among Lingayats. But appointing a Lingayat leader as the state chief will also force the party to carefully manage Union Minister Shobha Karandlaje, an articulate and popular Vokkaliga leader.
Karandlaje, who commands a reputation for fearlessness, is no longer considered a leader from the “Yediyurappa camp”. Though widely blamed for the BJP’s 2023 Assembly poll debacle – having served as the election management committee convener – her political clout ensures she cannot be easily sidelined. After shifting from Udupi-Chikmagalur Lok Sabha constituency to Bangalore North — more crowded with leaders than her earlier rural bastion — Karandlaje will have to fight relentlessly to keep her prominence among other Vokkaliga leaders such as former Deputy CM C N Ashwath Narayan and four-time MLA S R Vishwanath.
Another challenge for the BJP will be North Karnataka, home to former BJP strongmen, the Bellary brothers, and the Hyderabad-Karnataka belt, where the Congress has traditionally been strong. If the party chooses to appoint a young leader in the state, there will be a struggle with the old leaders who might be fading away but still remain influential.
JD(S) at risk?
Shivakumar’s appointment has also dampened, if not dashed, the dreams of BJP ally, Janata Dal (Secular) leader, and former CM H D Kumaraswamy.
The Union Minister, who shares a good rapport with the BJP’s national leadership but has several detractors in the state BJP, harboured hopes of becoming the CM again. He is learnt to have begun attempting to convince the national leadership of the BJP to back him as the NDA’s CM candidate. But with Shivakumar at the helm, Kumaraswamy, also a Vokkaliga, faces an uphill battle to get the Vokkaliga community’s backing and, as a result, may have a tough time convincing the BJP leadership in Delhi now.
As per the Socio-economic and Educational Survey report submitted to the Karnataka government last year, the two dominant castes of Vokkaligas and Lingayats comprise 21.3% of the population. However, the survey had to be conducted again as the two castes claimed the data from the survey, conducted in 2015, had become outdated and the data was flawed.
A BJP source said with Shivakumar as CM, there was a chance of the JD(S) imploding as “DK would see to it that there is a flow of leaders and cadre” from the H D Deve Gowda-led party to the Congress. “The JD(S) leadership’s biggest task now will be keeping its flock together,” the party insider added.
With Shivakumar taking over, the NDA’s challenges in the state had “quadrupled”, a source said, explaining the extent of the challenge before the party.
