The UN World Food Programme estimates El Niño could push almost 50 million more people worldwide into acute hunger, a fifth more than current levels.
El Niño can also lead to higher water levels in the eastern side of the Pacific.
The occurrence of El Niño is declared when a certain threshold of oceanic heat is sustained for several months in the Niño 3 and Niño 4 region of the eastern-central tropical Pacific.
As signals of a strong El Niño were observed earlier in the year than usual, this could lead to outcomes that differ from those predicted.
In addition, no powerful El Niño has occurred against a background climate that was as hot as it is this year.
The Panama Canal Authority has already tightened ship-loading limits as a prolonged dry spell threatens one of the world's key trade routes.
The UN World Food Programme estimates El Niño could push almost 50 million more people worldwide into acute hunger, a fifth more than current levels.
NOAA puts the odds at over 90% that this El Niño becomes “very strong,” potentially the most intense in nearly 80 years of record-keeping.
The world is set to experience an extremely intense El Niño weather event this year, with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. This could disrupt typical weather patterns and lead to heavy rainfall in some regions and severe drought in others. While it is unclear whether the more frequent occurrence of El Niño is directly linked to human-caused climate change, it is certainly exacerbating extreme weather patterns in some parts of the world.
El Niño occurs every few years, but this year it has intensified rapidly and dramatically, threatening certain ecosystems, such as fisheries in some parts of the world. When excess heat stored in ocean water is released into the atmosphere, it can trigger increased rainfall and higher temperatures, or even more severe weather events, such as hurricanes. El Niño can also lead to higher water levels in the eastern side of the Pacific.
The occurrence of El Niño is declared when a certain threshold of oceanic heat is sustained for several months in the Niño 3 and Niño 4 region of the eastern-central tropical Pacific. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) uses the three-month average sea surface temperature to determine whether an El Niño event is occurring, while some of the world’s other weather agencies use different metrics.
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The phenomenon can make the Atlantic hurricane season milder, with fewer storms. However, it may also lead to droughts in certain regions of the world, such as southern Africa, based on assessments of past El Niño years.
The “Super El Niño”, a term coined by scientists rather than officially used by meteorological agencies, refers to an event in which temperatures rise by at least 2 degrees Celsius above average, as occurred in 1982–83, 1997–98, 2015–16, and 2023–24. NOAA has warned that there is a greater than 90 per cent probability that this El Niño will become “very strong” in the second half of the year, perhaps even the strongest in almost 80 years – when records began.
Daniel Swain, a University of California climate scientist, said, “This is a genuinely remarkable event.” Swain explained, “We’re already at record-breaking or record-tying territory now, and we’re expected to skyrocket.”
The 2026 El Niño has already delayed planting seasons and disrupted crop growth in some parts of the world due to lower-than-usual rainfall and above-average temperatures, as seen across Central America and Southeast Asia. Rain-fed crops are expected to suffer in certain regions in the coming months. The United Nations World Food Programme estimates that El Niño could cause almost 50 million more people worldwide to experience acute hunger, an increase of about one-fifth.
The phenomenon is also affecting trade by threatening some of the world’s major waterways. Panama, one of the rainiest countries on Earth, has been experiencing a prolonged dry period that could affect trade in the Panama Canal. The Panama Canal Authority has imposed stricter limits on how heavily loaded ships can be while crossing, amid concerns about El Niño.
The Guardian reported that if a Super El Niño occurs and is as severe as meteorologists fear, it could adversely affect regions worldwide in various ways. In the worst-case scenario, a Super El Niño could cause drought, shock to global food supply chains, wildfires, excess rainfall, increased coal consumption, grid failure, declining fish stocks, heightened geopolitical tensions over critical agricultural inputs, higher rates of heat illness, and even civil conflict.
The severe weather is expected to disproportionately affect poorer regions of the world that lack the capacity to provide alternative water, food, and energy in the face of extreme weather events.
While weather agencies have models to predict the effects of El Niño, if a much stronger event occurs in 2026, it is uncertain how accurate those predictions will be. As signals of a strong El Niño were observed earlier in the year than usual, this could lead to outcomes that differ from those predicted.
There has not been an El Niño this intense on record. In addition, no powerful El Niño has occurred against a background climate that was as hot as it is this year. This makes predicting the impact of the weather event even more complicated. However, NOAA forecasters explained in a statement that just because the Super El Niño is expected to be record-strong does not mean its impacts will be decidedly worse or guaranteed to occur in most locations typically affected.
Based on Pacific Ocean temperature readings from recent months, meteorologists expect an extremely strong El Niño this year, which could spur extreme weather events in various parts of the world. However, if the severity of the weather event surpasses that of others on record, it will be almost impossible to predict its impact on different regions.
By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com
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