The forecast then shifted to May 28, and then back to the usual time of around June 1.
Now, the IMD says onset will not happen before June 3, and the actual arrival could be later still.
This latest forecast is, in fact, a downgraded estimation from what the IMD had predicted in April, an estimate of 92%.
A strengthening El Nino is expected to suppress rains, particularly in the second half of the season across central and southern India.
For now, the monsoon has been delayed yet again, and people across the country will have to wait a bit longer to experience cooling showers and winds.
India's southwest monsoon, which was supposed to have arrived in Kerala by now, is running behind schedule, and the latest forecast suggests it won't make landfall before June 3, with some weather experts now saying it could slip even further.
This is now the third time forecasters have had to push the date back.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) initially predicted the monsoon would hit Kerala on May 26, earlier than the usual June 1 date, raising hopes of an early start to the rainy season.
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That date, however, passed without any onset. The forecast then shifted to May 28, and then back to the usual time of around June 1.
Now, the IMD says onset will not happen before June 3, and the actual arrival could be later still. A policeman takes cover amid rainfall, in Kolkata. (Photo: PTI)
WHY IS INDIA'S MONSOON LATE?
Every year, the southwest monsoon makes its first landfall on the Kerala coast before travelling northward to eventually cover the entire country by around late June to early July.
The monsoon's arrival in Kerala is one of the most closely watched weather events of the year, because it marks the official start of India's four-month rainy season.
For the IMD to declare a monsoon onset, three conditions must be met simultaneously: sustained rainfall across at least 60% of Kerala's designated weather stations, westerly winds of a certain speed over the Arabian Sea, and sufficient cloud cover as detected by satellite.
Right now, the winds are the problem. People cover themselves during heavy rainfall. (Photo: PTI)
Westerly winds over the Kerala coast have remained too weak to trigger the official onset, even though moisture is present and scattered rains have already been falling across parts of the state and Lakshadweep.
A cyclone that formed over the Bay of Bengal made matters worse, as cyclones tend to disrupt and weaken the organised wind flow that the monsoon depends on to push inland.
The IMD expects the winds to gradually strengthen from around June 1, which should set the monsoon in motion, but with conditions still unsettled, the exact date remains uncertain.
WHAT DOES MONSOON DELAY MEANS FOR INDIA?
A few days' delay in Kerala does not automatically mean trouble for the rest of the country.
The IMD has clarified that the monsoon is only considered officially late, if it fails to arrive by June 8, which is a week after its normal date. So there is still a window for things to fall into place, but the window is closing fast.
Furthermore, the delay is arriving in an already difficult year, where extreme heat has swept large parts of the country, and warnings are being sounded about an intense El Nino, which could further affect the weather patterns. A weather map for June 1 shows weather systems around India. (Photo: IMD)
It's also due to the strengthening El Nino that the IMD has forecast a below-normal monsoon for 2026, with rainfall expected at just 90% of the long-period average for the season. This latest forecast is, in fact, a downgraded estimation from what the IMD had predicted in April, an estimate of 92%.
A strengthening El Nino is expected to suppress rains, particularly in the second half of the season across central and southern India.
For now, the monsoon has been delayed yet again, and people across the country will have to wait a bit longer to experience cooling showers and winds.
- Ends
