Rain belt shiftingAs the monsoon races towards its full coverage, the focus of intense rainfall is shifting east and north.
The current belt of heavy to very heavy rain, with isolated extremely heavy falls, is expected to migrate to the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim after unleashing one of the wettest spells of the season over Central and West India.
Even in its weakened state, the system is forecast to trigger another round of widespread rain over North-West India before the wet weather shifts towards the Himalayan foothills.
With the rain belt steadily migrating northward, meteorologists will closely watch how long these supporting systems retain their strength and continue to fuel widespread monsoon activity across the country.
They may unravel one after another as the axis of heavy rainfall shifts towards farther east-north-east.
The 2026 south-west monsoon is on the cusp of completing its annual march across the country, with Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab next in line before the rain-bearing winds envelop the entire nation over the next two to three days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
The monsoon made significant headway on Tuesday, sweeping across the remaining parts of Gujarat and advancing deeper into Rajasthan and Haryana after breaking out of its brief pause. Its northern limit now stretches through Barmer, Jodhpur and Rajgarh in Rajasthan before reaching Bathinda in Punjab.
Rain belt shifting
As the monsoon races towards its full coverage, the focus of intense rainfall is shifting east and north. The current belt of heavy to very heavy rain, with isolated extremely heavy falls, is expected to migrate to the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim after unleashing one of the wettest spells of the season over Central and West India.
The widespread downpour has dramatically narrowed India’s seasonal rainfall deficit to 20 per cent, bringing it within striking distance of the IMD’s ‘normal’ category. Central India (-5 per cent), Northwest India (-19 per cent) and the South Peninsula (-15 per cent) have already entered the normal rainfall bracket, while East and North-East India continue to lag with a 41 per cent deficit.
Depression weakens
The depression that powered the latest rain surge has weakened into a well-marked low-pressure area and is expected to ease further into a conventional low by Wednesday. Even in its weakened state, the system is forecast to trigger another round of widespread rain over North-West India before the wet weather shifts towards the Himalayan foothills.
Support systems
The monsoon remains supported by a network of weather systems. The seasonal trough extends from south-west Rajasthan to Bangladesh, passing through the well-marked low centred over east Madhya Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and West Bengal. A second trough stretches from the north-east Arabian Sea off the Konkan-Mumbai coast across Gujarat to the same low-pressure area before continuing eastward into West Bengal. An offshore trough also persists from south Gujarat to central Kerala.
With the rain belt steadily migrating northward, meteorologists will closely watch how long these supporting systems retain their strength and continue to fuel widespread monsoon activity across the country. They may unravel one after another as the axis of heavy rainfall shifts towards farther east-north-east.
Published on July 7, 2026
