US Midterms: 52% Likely To Vote Democrat, 44% Republican As Trump Faces Voter Backlash

News world US Midterms: 52% Likely To Vote Democrat, 44% Republican As Trump Faces Voter Backlash

US Midterms: 52% Likely To Vote Democrat, 44% Republican As Trump Faces Voter Backlash

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Last Updated: November 01, 2026, 14:30 IST

The Democratic advantage was wider among independent voters, with Democratic congressional candidates leading Republicans 52% to 39%.

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Former president Barack Obama greets Democratic candidate Sen. Jon Ossoff during a rally in support of both Ossoff and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms ahead of the Georgia Primary Election Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026, Morrow, Georgia. (IMAGE: AP PHOTO)

Democrats have opened an eight-point lead over Republicans ahead of the November 3 US midterm elections, with 52% of likely voters saying they are more inclined to vote for a Democratic candidate in their congressional district, compared with 44% backing a Republican, according to a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll.

The findings, released on October 27, point to a challenging electoral landscape for President Donald Trump’s Republican Party, with opposition to the president emerging as a significant factor in voters’ choices.

The survey found that 44% of likely voters considered their ballot primarily a vote against Trump. Only 21% said their vote was mainly in support of the president, while 35% said he was not influencing their choice very much.

The anti-Trump sentiment was particularly pronounced among independent voters. They were more than three times as likely to say their vote was mainly against Trump (44%) as to say it was in his favour (12%).

Democrats hold an even bigger lead among independents

The Democratic advantage was wider among independent voters, with Democratic congressional candidates leading Republicans 52% to 39%.

Among registered voters, Democrats held a 10-point lead. However, this was narrower than their 12-point advantage in September.

A majority of likely voters (51%) also expected the Democratic candidate in their district to win, compared with 46% who believed the Republican candidate would emerge victorious.

Trump’s approval rating at 40%

The poll found that 40% of likely voters approved of the job Trump was doing as president, while 59% disapproved.

The gap was particularly stark among those with strong opinions about his performance: 53% strongly disapproved of Trump, against 24% who strongly approved.

His personal favourability ratings were also negative. Only 37% of likely voters had a favourable opinion of the president, while 58% viewed him unfavourably. The latter included 14% of Republican voters.

Cost of living emerges as top election issue

Economic concerns are also weighing on voters ahead of the midterms. The cost of living was the most frequently cited issue, with 34% of likely voters identifying it as their top concern. Preserving democracy followed closely at 33%.

Immigration ranked third at 12%, while foreign policy and healthcare were each cited by 5% of respondents. Crime was mentioned by 4%, while abortion and education each received 2%.

The findings also pointed to financial anxiety among American households. Nearly four in 10 likely voters (38%) said their personal finances had worsened over the past year. Only 15% said their financial situation had improved, while 44% reported that it had remained broadly unchanged.

Democrats were more likely than Republicans to report financial deterioration, with 51% of Democratic voters saying their family finances had worsened, compared with 21% of Republicans.

Voters favour change over experience

The survey found that 55% of likely voters considered it more important to elect candidates who would bring about change than those with experience and a proven track record (41%).

The preference for change was strongest among Democrats, 74% of whom prioritised it, followed by independents at 63%. Among Republicans, only 28% preferred candidates promising change.

Despite the political divisions, enthusiasm for voting remained high. As many as 84% of likely voters said they were enthusiastic or very enthusiastic about casting their ballots on November 3. Democrats reported 91% enthusiasm, compared with 86% among Republicans and 76% among independents.

Most voters say losing candidates should accept results

The poll also examined public confidence in the electoral process. Overall, 77% of likely voters said they were confident or very confident that their state or local government would conduct fair and accurate elections. Republicans were less confident than Democrats, with 68% expressing trust in the process, compared with 88% of Democrats and 75% of independents.

On whether candidates should accept defeat, 81% said a candidate should definitely or probably accept the election results if declared the loser. Another 16% said candidates should probably or definitely challenge the outcome.

Democrats were most likely to favour accepting the results (90%), followed by independents (83%). Among Republicans, the figure was lower at 70%.

The NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll surveyed 1,289 registered voters between October 19 and 20, 2026, through telephone, text and online interviews. The margin of error was 3.8 percentage points among likely voters and 3.7 percentage points among registered voters.

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Quick Answers Powered by Ask News18 What is the voter preference gap between Democrats and Republicans ahead of the US midterms? Democrats have opened an eight-point lead over Republicans, with 52% of likely voters inclined to vote for Democratic congressional candidates compared to 44% backing Republicans. What do voters consider the top issue in the US midterm elections according to the poll? The cost of living emerged as the top election issue, cited by 34% of likely voters, followed closely by preserving democracy at 33%. What is President Donald Trump's approval rating among likely voters in the poll? President Donald Trump's approval rating stands at 40%, while 59% of likely voters disapprove of the job he is doing. Powered by Ask News18

About the Author Shankhyaneel Sarkar Shankhyaneel Sarkar is a chief sub editor at News18. He covers international affairs, where he focuses on breaking news to in-depth analyses. He has over seven years of experience during which he has ... Read More

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First Published: November 01, 2026, 14:30 IST

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