The EIA projects end-of-October storage near 3,985 bcf, the highest in a decade and 5% above the five-year average.
The EIA also raised its 2027 production forecast to 116.0 bcf per day from 115.3 bcf per day in July.
It has not overcome what production and storage are doing on the other side of the balance sheet.
What to WatchThursday’s 50 bcf storage estimate is the first test.
A larger build reminds the market that end-of-season storage is still tracking toward the highest October number in a decade.
Inventories are 3.7% above the five-year seasonal average as of September 11. The EIA projects end-of-October storage near 3,985 bcf, the highest in a decade and 5% above the five-year average. The EIA also raised its 2027 production forecast to 116.0 bcf per day from 115.3 bcf per day in July.
Edison Electric Institute had lower-48 electricity output up 16.1% from a year earlier at 94,427 gigawatt hours in the week ended September 12. Trailing 52-week generation was up 3.3%. The power demand number is helping the front of the curve. It has not overcome what production and storage are doing on the other side of the balance sheet.
What to Watch
Thursday’s 50 bcf storage estimate is the first test. A smaller build gives October and November another reason to hold gains. A larger build reminds the market that end-of-season storage is still tracking toward the highest October number in a decade.
The South-Central heat forecast through October 6 is keeping the front-end bid alive. As long as that forecast holds, late-season power demand supports October and November. A cooler shift takes the reason for the rally away fast.
October changed its main trend to up after trading through $3.026 but needs to hold above $3.044 to show the move has follow-through. November is above its 50-day at $3.034 with $3.216 in front of it. March is the cleaner read on the winter trade and it remains below $2.929. The front end is buying heat. March is not buying the winter yet.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
