Mahesh Palawat, vice president at Skymet, said conditions look ideal for the withdrawal to commence by the end of this week.
(Raj K Raj/ HT Photo/ Representational)The all-India monsoon deficit stood at 15% as of September 13, with the deficit particularly pronounced across the south peninsula and east and northeast India.
Also Read I IMD forecasts heavy rain across Gujarat, Maharashtra and several statesThe monsoon normally begins withdrawing from west Rajasthan around September 17.
“Conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from some parts of West Rajasthan around September 19, 2026,” the IMD said in a statement.
The season has also been affected by a strengthening El Niño, which typically suppresses monsoon rainfall over India, although its impact has varied significantly across regions.
The southwest monsoon is likely to begin withdrawing from India around September 19, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday, as the country heads toward the end of a season that has left several major agricultural states with deep rainfall deficits unlikely to be erased. Mahesh Palawat, vice president at Skymet, said conditions look ideal for the withdrawal to commence by the end of this week. (Raj K Raj/ HT Photo/ Representational)
The all-India monsoon deficit stood at 15% as of September 13, with the deficit particularly pronounced across the south peninsula and east and northeast India. Among the states facing deficits that are unlikely to recover are Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Bihar, Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Arunachal Pradesh and Meghalaya, according to the data.
Also Read I IMD forecasts heavy rain across Gujarat, Maharashtra and several states
The monsoon normally begins withdrawing from west Rajasthan around September 17. This year, the process is expected to begin around September 19, although parts of the country will see significant rain activity before then. Last year, withdrawal began on September 14.
“Conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from some parts of West Rajasthan around September 19, 2026,” the IMD said in a statement.
Varying deficit range across country The withdrawal forecast comes as the monsoon prepares to exit after a season in which a sharp deficit early in the season was partly offset by widespread July rainfall. The all-India deficit had reached 40% in June before falling to 13% by the end of July. It was 14% at the end of August and stood at 15% as of September 13.
The season has also been affected by a strengthening El Niño, which typically suppresses monsoon rainfall over India, although its impact has varied significantly across regions.
