El Niño statusAt the same time, global climate indicators point to a strengthening likelihood of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific.
Sea-surface temperatures have crossed the critical 0.5°C threshold commonly associated with the onset of El Niño.
Oceanic patternsThe equatorial Pacific has transitioned rapidly from neutral conditions towards a clear El Niño pattern.
Even so, evolving El Niño conditions can begin influencing global weather patterns, including the monsoon.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral for now, though several indicators are trending towards El Niño.
The monsoon advanced further along the west coast and into the interior peninsula on Saturday, covering the whole of Goa and extending across parts of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, while spreading over most of Tamil Nadu and into Mizoram and Manipur in the North-east.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) said its northern limit passed through Devgad in Maharashtra; Koppal in Karnataka; Anantapuramu in Andhra Pradesh; Chennai; and Aizawl on Saturday afternoon.
Intense cloud bands
Conditions remain favourable for the monsoon to advance into more parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, the remaining areas of Tamil Nadu, and the rest of the North-Eastern State over the next two to three days.
Satellite imagery on Saturday evening showed extensive rain-bearing cloud bands over parts of Karnataka including Hubballi, Belagavi, and Kalaburagi; Kolhapur and Ratnagiri in Maharashtra; Hyderabad, Kakinada, Visakhapatnam and Komarada in Andhra Pradesh; Kalimela and large areas in Odisha; Jagdalpur in Chhattisgarh as well large parts of West Bengal and the southern parts of North-Eastern States.
Meanwhile, the IMD has indicated that a fresh western disturbance expected around June 11 could dip south into the north-east Arabian Sea off the Konkan-Mumbai coast and emerge with a cyclonic circulation. The system may trigger thunderstorms over Mumbai and adjoining south Gujarat for several days.
El Niño status
At the same time, global climate indicators point to a strengthening likelihood of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific. Sea-surface temperatures have crossed the critical 0.5°C threshold commonly associated with the onset of El Niño. International agencies estimate an 80-90 per cent chance of the phenomenon developing through June and July and potentially peaking between November and January.
Oceanic patterns
The equatorial Pacific has transitioned rapidly from neutral conditions towards a clear El Niño pattern. While oceanic signals have strengthened, atmospheric responses typically lag and may take more time to fully develop. Even so, evolving El Niño conditions can begin influencing global weather patterns, including the monsoon.
The US Climate Prediction Center defines El Niño as sustained warming of at least 0.5°C in the equatorial Pacific, accompanied by consistent atmospheric changes that persist for three consecutive months. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral for now, though several indicators are trending towards El Niño.
Published on June 6, 2026
