However, in regional areas, many prefectures continue to see declining fertility rates, and some have stressed the need for measures to stem the outflow of young people.
Although Tokyo’s fertility rate remained flat in 2025, the number of births rose by 857 from the previous year to 85,064, marking the first year-on-year increase in a decade.
In Kagawa Prefecture, both the fertility rate and the number of births exceeded the previous year’s figures for the first time in four years.
In 2024, the fertility rate fell year-on-year in 46 prefectures, while remaining flat in Fukui Prefecture.
In 2025, the fertility rate increased in 13 prefectures from the previous year, while remaining flat in six prefectures.
June 5, 2026
TOKYO – While Japan’s total fertility rate has declined for the 10th consecutive year, the rate of decline was the smallest in the past five years, and signs of a turnaround seem to have emerged, with the rate rising in 13 prefectures, according to the 2025 Vital Statistics preliminary figures released on Wednesday.
However, in regional areas, many prefectures continue to see declining fertility rates, and some have stressed the need for measures to stem the outflow of young people.
Although Tokyo’s fertility rate remained flat in 2025, the number of births rose by 857 from the previous year to 85,064, marking the first year-on-year increase in a decade.
On Wednesday evening, Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike said, “The increase in the number of births in Tokyo is noteworthy and represents a significant achievement.”
The metropolitan government is focusing not only on generous child-rearing support but also on support for marriage. In fiscal 2024, it launched an artificial intelligence matching system for those wishing to get married, and 675 couples had begun dating through the system by the end of April this year. The number of marriages in 2025 rose to 79,481, an increase of 3,040 from the previous year. The metropolitan government believes this may be a result of its efforts.
In Kagawa Prefecture, both the fertility rate and the number of births exceeded the previous year’s figures for the first time in four years. Since fiscal 2023, the prefectural government has been working to create an environment friendly to child-rearing, including establishing about 200 centers where parents can consult with childcare workers and others. Gov. Toyohito Ikeda said: “Our policies to date have borne fruit. We want to ensure this trend becomes a lasting one.”
The year-on-year decline in the number of births was 2.2%, the smallest since the decline began in 2016. In 2024, the fertility rate fell year-on-year in 46 prefectures, while remaining flat in Fukui Prefecture. In 2025, the fertility rate increased in 13 prefectures from the previous year, while remaining flat in six prefectures.
The Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry cited a recovery in the number of marriages as one factor contributing to the narrowing of the decline. In 2024, the number of marriages increased by about 10,000 compared to the previous year, and in 2025 it increased by another 4,027.
However, while there were increases in urban areas such as Tokyo and Osaka, the decline continues elsewhere, particularly in regional areas.
Nagano Prefecture, with a 2025 fertility rate of 1.25, and Tottori Prefecture, with 1.38, both saw their rates decline by 0.05 from the previous year, putting them in a tie for greatest decline. In Nagano, there were 6,708 marriages, a drop of more than 20% compared to pre-pandemic levels, with the outflow of young people to the Tokyo metropolitan area believed to be a factor.
“We have no choice but to devote ourselves to creating an environment where young people don’t feel that life is difficult,” an official said.
Prof. Junya Tsutsui of Ritsumeikan University, who specializes in family sociology, said: “While the government’s support measures for families with children may have contributed to the narrowing of the decline, we cannot be at all reassured when considering the future sustainability of social security. It is crucial to establish mechanisms — such as job creation — to help young people in regional areas settle down, so as not to accelerate their exodus to the Tokyo metropolitan area.”
