Per Variety, as of Sunday morning, Disclosure Day is projected to earn a 3-day total of $44 million by the end of its debut weekend at the domestic box office.
1 at the domestic box office.
However, it still remains to be seen if the new Steven Spielberg movie will be able to break even.
Ultimately, the new Steven Spielberg movie could break even in theaters off the strength of its reception from both critics and audiences.
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Disclosure Day is abducting more cash than expected.
The new Steven Spielberg sci-fi movie is his latest alien-related feature after a career dotted with them, including 1977's Close Encounters of the Third Kind, 1982's E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial, and 2005's War of the Worlds. 2026's Disclosure Day follows meteorologist Margaret Fairchild (Emily Blunt) being thrown together with whistleblower Daniel Kellner (Josh O'Connor) as he works to expose the cover-up of proof of extraterrestrial life. The movie's star-studded cast also includes Colman Domingo, Eve Hewson, Wyatt Russell, and Colin Firth.
Per Variety, as of Sunday morning, Disclosure Day is projected to earn a 3-day total of $44 million by the end of its debut weekend at the domestic box office. It's launching well ahead of its initial $35 million projections with a total that surpasses the $41.8 million domestic debut of 2018's Ready Player One to give Disclosure Day the best opening weekend for a Steven Spielberg movie since 2008's Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (which happens to be his most recent movie about aliens, though their presence in the story was a surprise reveal).
Below, see a breakdown of the opening weekends (or primary wide expansion weekends) for every Steven Spielberg movie since 2008:
Title Domestic Debut Worldwide Box Office The Fabelmans (2022) $3.1 million (wide expansion) $45.6 million West Side Story (2021) $10.6 million $76 million Ready Player One (2018) $41.8 million $607.9 million The Post (2017) $19.4 million (wide expansion) $179.8 million The BFG (2016) $18.8 million $194.6 million Bridge of Spies (2015) $15.4 million $165.5 million Lincoln (2012) $21 million (wide expansion) $275.3 million War Horse (2011) $7.5 million $177.6 million The Adventures of Tintin (2011) $9.7 million $374 million Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (2008) $100.1 million $786.6 million
This solid debut has allowed Disclosure Day to take No. 1 at the domestic box office. While this was essentially always a guarantee, as it is the only major summer tentpole debuting this weekend, it has considerably widened the margin between itself and the No. 2 movie, the sleeper horror hit Obsession, which is projected to earn a 3-day domestic total of $19 million during its fifth weekend with yet another astonishingly slim week-on-week drop of 25%.
However, it still remains to be seen if the new Steven Spielberg movie will be able to break even. The reported budget of Disclosure Day is a whopping $115 million. Because big-budget Hollywood movies often need to earn back two and a half times their price tags in order to end up in the black in theaters, this could place the movie's estimated break-even point as high as $287.5 million.
While two of the most recent movies to hit that rough total worldwide had much bigger domestic debuts (2026's The Mandalorian and Grogu, which debuted with $81.7 million and currently has $298.2 million worldwide, and 2023's Five Nights at Freddy's, which debuted with $80 million and earned $291.5 million overall), 2022's Elvis debuted much lower with $31.2 million and eventually climbed to $287.7 million, proving that Disclosure Day has a chance if it shows strong audience retention.
Ultimately, the new Steven Spielberg movie could break even in theaters off the strength of its reception from both critics and audiences. Disclosure Day reviews have been strong, earning it a Certified Fresh Rotten Tomatoes score of 80% and a nearly matching 75% score from verified audience members on the Popcornmeter. Audiences have also given it a reasonably solid CinemaScore of B.
This Weekend's Domestic Box Office Top 5
Nikki flashing a knowing smile in Obsession
Below, see the full domestic Top 5 chart for the weekend:
# Title 3-Day Total Cumulative (Domestic) 1 Disclosure Day $44 million $44 million (weekend 1) 2 Obsession $19 million $188.3 million (weekend 5) 3 Scary Movie $14.5 million $84.5 million (weekend 2) 4 Backrooms $12 million $160 million (weekend 3) 5 Masters of the Universe $8.6 million $45.7 million (weekend 2)
The previous weekend's major new release titles have been shoved roughly down the chart by the arrival of Disclosure Day. However, both were bested by holdover titles as well due to their brutal sophomore drops of more than 70% apiece.
The horror parody Scary Movie fell 73.3% from No. 1 to No. 3 (behind the ever-impressive Obsession, which actually rose two places from No. 4) while the IP adventure movie Masters of the Universe fell 70.7% from No. 2 to No. 5, falling behind those titles as well as the horror hit Backrooms, which is only expected to drop 50% or so during its third weekend, falling from No. 3 to No. 4.
For Scary Movie, this marks the biggest drop by far for the six-film franchise, though it has already more than cleared its estimated break-even point thanks to its slim reported budget of just $30 million. Masters of the Universe, on the other hand, has a steep climb ahead of it thanks to its reported budget of roughly $170 million, which could place its estimated break-even point at $425 million or more (it currently has less than $100 million worldwide).
Meanwhile, The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act has dropped from No. 5 to No. 10. While the Fathom Entertainment presentation (which includes the finale of the titular animated web series) is still playing in more than 2,000 theaters, it was a fan-skewing event that wasn't necessarily targeting new audiences, which made it extremely frontloaded.
Given the fact that the domestic debut of Disclosure Day was still relatively low for a summer blockbuster, it is highly likely that the new Steven Spielberg movie will also move down the chart next weekend. There is essentially no chance that it will be able to stand up against the onslaught of the impending Pixar sequel Toy Story 5, which is projected to debut with more than $150 million (per Box Office Theory).
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