Brazil vs Norway Prediction: World Cup 2026 Match Preview

Can Carlo Ancelotti’s side secure a quarter-final spot at the FIFA World Cup? We look ahead to Sunday’s last-16 clash with our Brazil vs Norway prediction and preview.

Brazil vs Norway: The Key Insights

The Opta supercomputer backed Brazil to beat Norway across 90 minutes in a convincing 53.6% of pre-match simulations.

Brazil have only been eliminated once in 10 World Cup matches at the last-16 stage.

Erling Haaland has scored in each of his last 13 competitive internationals, netting 25 goals in this run.

Carlo Ancelotti will know Brazil must improve ahead of facing Erling Haaland and Norway in Sunday’s last-16 clash at the World Cup.

Brazil scraped past Japan in the last round as Gabriel Martinelli scored a last-gasp winner to snatch a 2-1 comeback victory. Casemiro had earlier cancelled out Kaishu Sano’s opener in Houston.

Bruno Guimarães teed up Martinelli’s moment of glory, taking the midfielder to four assists at the 2026 tournament. Only Pelé (6 in 1970) has recorded more assists for Brazil in a single World Cup edition on record since 1966.

But Ancelotti may be concerned that his attack hasn’t clicked into gear yet. Brazil are averaging 15.0 shots per game at this year’s tournament (60 shots in 4 games), their second lowest on record at a single edition, ahead of only 1998 (14.4).

That may not be entirely bad news, though. Brazil’s xG-per-shot is their highest on record in this time (0.16), suggesting the average quality of their chances is higher.

Ancelotti may not be bothered by the underlying data, as long as Brazil win in New Jersey and make it four consecutive World Cup victories. They have not won that many in a row since an 11-game run between 2002 and 2006.

Experience is on Brazil’s side, too. They have progressed from nine of their 10 matches in the last-16 round of the World Cup, only failing to do so in a 1-0 defeat to Argentina in 1990.

Norway also left it late in the previous round as Haaland’s 86th-minute strike secured a 2-1 victory over Ivory Coast. That triumph marked their first-ever victory in a World Cup knockout match, and this will be uncharted territory for Ståle Solbakken’s side.

Prior to this competition, they had played just two knockout matches at a major tournament – Norway lost both of those against Italy at the World Cup in 1938 and 1998.

Indeed, 50% of Norway’s major tournament victories have come this year (3/6), but Solbakken will be desperate for more with the stars at his disposal, especially up top.

Haaland has found the net in each of his last 13 competitive internationals, scoring 25 goals in this run. Another strike against Brazil would make him just the eighth European player to score in each of his first four World Cup appearances.

The Manchester City talisman would be the first European to do so since Italy’s Christian Vieri in 1998, and Haaland shouldn’t be short of chances with the creative players behind him.

Martin Ødegaard, who teed up Antonio Nusa’s opener against Ivory Coast, could become the first player on record to provide an assist in each of his first four World Cup matches. Ødegaard would also be just the third to do so in four successive appearances overall at the finals on record, after Germany’s Thomas Häßler (1994) and Brazil’s Zico (1982).

Solbakken will want to tighten things up at the other end, though. Norway have both scored (10 goals) and conceded (8) in all four of their games at this year’s edition, and they can ill afford to give Vinícius Júnior and Matheus Cunha too many chances here.

Before 2026, only on five occasions had a nation both scored and conceded in each of their first five games of a single edition at the finals. Brazil in 1938, Sweden in 1950, Germany in 1970, Belgium in 1986, and Sweden in 1994 are the other occurrences.

Brazil vs Norway Head-to-Head

This will be the fifth meeting between the pair across all competitions, and the second at the World Cup, but Brazil supporters may be concerned by their head-to-head record.

Norway won 2-1 in their last meeting at the finals back in 1998, while the Vikings are unbeaten in all four previous games between the sides (W2 D2).

More concerningly for Ancelotti, Brazil have been eliminated from each of their last six World Cup knockout ties against European opponents, since beating Germany in the 2002 final.

Brazil have been knocked out by France (2006 quarter-finals), Netherlands (2010 quarter-finals), Germany (2014 semi-finals), Netherlands (2014 third-place play-off), Belgium (2018 quarter-finals), and Croatia (2022 quarter-finals) in those six meetings.

Brazil vs Norway Prediction

Brazil came out on top across 90 minutes in a dominant 53.6% of 25,000 pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.

The same data-led simulations saw Norway win in normal time in 22.4%, while the draw that would send the tie to extra-time and, possibly, penalties accounted for 24.0%.

Overall, Brazil have a 65.6% chance of reaching the last eight, while Norway have a 34.5% likelihood of progressing to a meeting with either England or Mexico.

Brazil vs Norway Squads

Brazil: Alisson Becker, Weverton, Ederson, Gabriel Magalhães, Marquinhos, Alex Sandro, Danilo, Bremer, Léo Pereira, Douglas Santos, Roger Ibañez, Éderson Silva, Casemiro, Bruno Guimarães, Fabinho, Danilo Santos, Lucas Paquetá, Vinícius Júnior, Matheus Cunha, Neymar, Raphinha, Endrick, Luiz Henrique, Gabriel Martinelli, Igor Thiago, Rayan.

Norway: Ørjan Nyland, Sander Tangvik, Egil Selvik, Kristoffer Ajer, Leo Østigård, David Møller Wolfe, Fredrik Bjørkan, Marcus Pedersen, Torbjørn Heggem, Sondre Langås, Henrik Falchener, Julian Ryerson, Morten Thorsby, Patrick Berg, Sander Berge, Martin Ødegaard, Fredrik Aursnes, Kristian Thorstvedt, Thelo Aasgaard, Antonio Nusa, Oscar Bobb, Jens Petter Hauge, Alexander Sørloth, Erling Haaland, Jørgen Strand Larsen, Andreas Schjelderup.

Brazil vs Norway Predicted Lineups

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