Apple’s iPhone 18 Demand Improves At The Margin, China Remains Weak Spot, Says UBS — Latest Target Implies 13% Downside Potential

iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max wait times increased by about 3 and 2 days week over week, UBS said.

The firm maintained a 'Neutral' rating and $296 price target on Apple stock.

Apple unveiled the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max on Sept. 9, with store availability starting Sept. 18

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is seeing signs of improving iPhone 18 demand at the margin, according to UBS, though China remains the main weak spot in the firm's latest supply-chain and wait-time data.

UBS Evidence Lab found average wait times for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max increased by roughly three and two days week over week, respectively, according to TheFly.

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The year-over-year decline in wait times has also narrowed to around one day, suggesting demand outside China is now running close to flat compared with last year.

China, however, still accounts for most of the weakness in the data, UBS said. The firm maintained a 'Neutral' rating and $296 price target on AAPL, per TheFly. Against the stock's $339.75 close, the target implies roughly 13% downside potential.

UBS Sees Demand Stabilizing Outside China

Wait times often serve as an early indicator of demand relative to available supply after a new iPhone launch. Longer delivery times can point to stronger orders, tighter supply, or both, while shorter waits can suggest softer demand.

For UBS, the important change is that the gap versus last year is narrowing. The firm still is not calling for a meaningful acceleration in demand, but the latest readings suggest the early picture has become less weak outside China, per TheFly.

iPhone 18 Pro Is Starting Its Sales Cycle

Apple unveiled the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max on Sept. 9, with pre-orders beginning Sept. 12 and store availability starting Sept. 18 across more than 65 countries and regions, including China and the U.S.

The new Pro models feature Apple's A20 Pro chip, a 48-megapixel main camera with variable aperture, upgraded battery performance, and Siri AI through iOS 27. Apple said the Pro Max delivers the 'largest battery-life increase' ever on an iPhone.

That means the UBS readings capture only the very early stage of the launch, making the next several weeks of wait-time and channel data important for determining whether the initial improvement holds.

Evercore Sees A Stronger Upgrade Cycle

Analysts remain divided on Apple stock. While UBS sees downside in the stock, Evercore ISI raised its price target on AAPL to $380 from $365 last week while maintaining an 'Outperform' rating, according to TheFly.