October WTI crude oil futures are trading at $91.80 Thursday night, up $8.36 or 10.02% for the week so far.
October WTI crude oil futures are trading at $91.80 Thursday night, up $8.36 or 10.02% for the week so far.
Unofficial daily flows have been running near 8 million barrels, while pipelines bypassing Hormuz add another 4 million to 5 million barrels per day.
August exports rose to about 2.34 million barrels per day from roughly 1.35 million barrels per day in July.
The recovery matters, but Iraq had exported more than 3.3 million barrels per day before the war restricted Hormuz.
Thursday opened with profit-taking after President Trump said the renewed fighting would not last too long. Brent slipped toward $94. WTI traded toward $89.50. For a few hours, the market was willing to sell the idea that the conflict was heading toward a shorter duration.
Brent settled Wednesday at $95.63. WTI settled at $91.01. Both contracts posted their highest settlements since July.
Tuesday’s U.S. strikes targeted Iranian radar, air-defense, communications and mine-laying positions along the southern coast. Iran answered with attacks on U.S. positions around the region.
WTI did not rally because every Gulf barrel stopped moving. It rallied because the barrels still moving are exposed to a supply route that can change with the next headline.
The market began the week testing whether more cargoes moving through the Strait of Hormuz would take the war premium out of crude. That selloff did not hold. The United States and Iran exchanged their heaviest fire since July. Iran tightened shipping restrictions. Kuwait came under missile and drone fire. Israel renewed threats against Iranian energy infrastructure.
October WTI crude oil futures are trading at $91.80 Thursday night, up $8.36 or 10.02% for the week so far. The contract traded as low as $84.11 early in the week before reaching $93.14, its strongest level since late July.
October WTI crude oil futures are trading at $91.80 Thursday night, up $8.36 or 10.02% for the week so far. The contract traded as low as $84.11 early in the week before reaching $93.14, its strongest level since late July.
The market began the week testing whether more cargoes moving through the Strait of Hormuz would take the war premium out of crude. That selloff did not hold. The United States and Iran exchanged their heaviest fire since July. Iran tightened shipping restrictions. Kuwait came under missile and drone fire. Israel renewed threats against Iranian energy infrastructure.
WTI did not rally because every Gulf barrel stopped moving. It rallied because the barrels still moving are exposed to a supply route that can change with the next headline.
The Conflict Expanded, and the Early Selling Ended
Tuesday’s U.S. strikes targeted Iranian radar, air-defense, communications and mine-laying positions along the southern coast. Iran answered with attacks on U.S. positions around the region.
Brent settled Wednesday at $95.63. WTI settled at $91.01. Both contracts posted their highest settlements since July.
Thursday opened with profit-taking after President Trump said the renewed fighting would not last too long. Brent slipped toward $94. WTI traded toward $89.50. For a few hours, the market was willing to sell the idea that the conflict was heading toward a shorter duration.
Then Kuwait’s army said it was confronting Iranian missile and drone attacks. Iranian state media said U.S. bases in Kuwait were the targets. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz added to the supply threat by warning that Israel would cripple Iranian military and civilian infrastructure, including energy facilities, if Tehran attacked Israel.
The early fade died on those headlines. WTI pushed to $93.14, and Brent reached $97.48 before both contracts backed off the highs. The market does not need an attack on Iranian energy infrastructure to happen. It only needs the threat to stay live.
Hormuz Traffic Is Moving, Not Normal
Six commodity vessels transited Hormuz on Wednesday. That was down from 11 the day before and below the recent 10-day average of about 13.
U.S. officials pointed to stronger flows earlier in the week. About 17 million barrels moved through the waterway Monday. An escorted group of roughly 40 vessels carrying about 18 million barrels passed through Tuesday. Unofficial daily flows have been running near 8 million barrels, while pipelines bypassing Hormuz add another 4 million to 5 million barrels per day.
Those numbers show workarounds. They do not show a normal Gulf supply system.
Iran has expanded the list of vessels it calls non-compliant. Ships outside Tehran’s designated passage face fines, confiscation or detention. The Revolutionary Guard said two tankers struck mines and caught fire while trying to use an illegal route. Washington denied the mine-strike claim.
Cargoes are moving under escort, through alternate routes and on terms set by Tehran. That is enough oil to prevent panic. It is not enough reliable flow to let sellers take the premium out of crude.
Iraq Added Barrels, but Only on Tehran’s Terms
Iraq gave sellers their best supply number of the week. August exports rose to about 2.34 million barrels per day from roughly 1.35 million barrels per day in July. Heavy discounts drew buyers back and Iran granted passage to selected Iraqi tankers.
The recovery matters, but Iraq had exported more than 3.3 million barrels per day before the war restricted Hormuz. The additional barrels are moving because Tehran is allowing specific tankers through the strait. That is not a free market reopening.
Saudi exports fell to a nine-year low in August after tanker attacks disrupted loadings. Gulf producers have oil available. The problem is loading, insuring and moving it consistently to refiners.
Iraq capped some of the upside this week. It did not change the larger supply picture.
U.S. Inventories Tightened the Domestic Side
The EIA reported a 4.5 million-barrel draw in commercial crude inventories for the week ended August 28. Stocks fell to 424.5 million barrels, far more than the small draw analysts expected.
Refineries operated at 98% of capacity, the highest rate since 2018. U.S. crude exports rose nearly 700,000 barrels per day to 4.5 million barrels per day. Production increased to 13.86 million barrels per day, but refiners and export terminals absorbed enough oil to pull commercial inventories lower.
Gasoline inventories fell 1.2 million barrels and stood 6% below the five-year average. Distillate stocks rose 800,000 barrels but remained 14% below average. The product market is still tight while Russian and Middle Eastern refining capacity remains under pressure.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell another 3.1 million barrels to 286.6 million. The administration is discussing a Venezuelan crude swap to help refill the reserve. That is a longer-term plan. It does not offset the latest draw.
Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis
Trend Indicator Analysis
October WTI crude oil futures are sharply higher, heading into the end of the week after a strong technical bounce from last week’s low at $79.26. The main trend is up with traders reaffirming it with the trade through the May top at $91.27.
The current move is being controlled by momentum. If the upside momentum continues through $93.14 then the psychological $100 level comes into the picture.
A sustained trade under the previous top at $91.27 will be the first sign of weakness. A trade under $88.07 will be the first sign of actual selling pressure.
Weekly Technical Forecast
The direction of the Weekly October Crude Oil futures contract for the week ending September 11 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $91.27.
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move above $91.27 will signal the presence of strong buyers. This will put the market in a position to challenge the psychological $100.00 level.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under $91.27 will indicate the buying is slowing and the selling pressure is increasing. If it creates enough downside momentum, then $88.07 will become the next target. A trade through $79.26 will turn the minor trend down and shift momentum to the downside.
Weekly Outlook
WTI is higher by 10% because the market tested the diplomatic and workaround story, then watched the conflict widen into Kuwait and Hormuz traffic fall to six vessels.
The bearish case has Iraq’s recovery, escorted traffic, and pipeline bypasses. OPEC+ is expected to leave October output policy unchanged at Sunday’s meeting. The group has barrels. It cannot guarantee that Gulf barrels move safely through Hormuz.
The next week starts with the same trade: vessel traffic, the next military headline, and whether Gulf exports hold together without another attack or tighter Iranian restrictions.
A clear drop in military risk and sustained traffic recovery will take premium out of crude quickly. More attacks, another threat to energy infrastructure, or a further drop in vessel counts will keep WTI above $90 and Brent in the mid-to-high $90s.
Technically, $91.27 is controlling the near-term direction of the market with a bias to the upside and $100 on the radar. A sustained move under $91.27 will be an early sign of weakness, with selling pressure increasing if $88.07 fails as support. Bullish traders should also watch for the formation of a potentially bearish closing price reversal top at the end of next week.
