Over time, gravitational forces gradually altered its trajectory until an impact with the lunar surface became unavoidable.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS ADThe impact will mark only the second confirmed instance of an abandoned rocket accidentally colliding with the Moon.
Spacecraft already operating around the Moon are expected to provide scientists with an unprecedented before-and-after record of the impact site.
The crater expected to be created by the SpaceX rocket will become another permanent addition to the lunar landscape.
Instead, the lunar surface is recognised as a place to be explored and used for the benefit of all humankind.
In the early hours of August 5 (UTC), a discarded SpaceX rocket stage is expected to strike the Moon after spending more than a year drifting through space.
Travelling at roughly 8,700 kilometres per hour (around 5,400mph), the impact will take place near the isolated Einstein Crater on the Moon’s sunlit western limb, ending an unplanned journey that began with a commercial lunar mission in January 2025.
The collision is not expected to threaten Earth, nor is it likely to affect current lunar operations.
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Yet scientists across the world are preparing to observe the event because it offers something that nature rarely does: an impact whose timing, location, speed and size are known in advance.
Researchers believe the data gathered from the crash could improve understanding of crater formation, the behaviour of lunar dust and the potential risks debris may pose to future astronauts and infrastructure on the Moon.
How did a SpaceX rocket end up on a collision course with the Moon?
The rocket stage was launched on January 15, 2025, as part of a commercial mission carrying two privately developed lunar landers. Once the payloads were successfully sent on their way, the upper stage had completed its task.
Unlike spacecraft designed for controlled disposal, however, it did not retain sufficient fuel either to return to Earth or to steer itself into a stable orbit around the Sun.
Instead, the stage remained trapped in a complex and unstable orbit influenced by the Earth and the Moon. Over time, gravitational forces gradually altered its trajectory until an impact with the lunar surface became unavoidable.
According to experts, the collision was never part of the original mission plan.
The abandoned stage itself measures around 12 metres (40 feet) in length and weighs approximately 4,500 kilogrammes.
Space tracking specialist Bill Gray, who has monitored the object’s path, predicts the rocket will strike the lunar surface at about 5,400mph — around seven times the speed of sound — near Einstein Crater, reported Sky News.
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The impact will mark only the second confirmed instance of an abandoned rocket accidentally colliding with the Moon. In 2022, a discarded Chinese rocket segment crashed into the lunar far side, leaving behind a pair of craters.
That event could not be directly observed from Earth because of its location.
This time, however, circumstances are considerably more favourable for astronomers. Since the impact will occur on the Moon’s near side, researchers will have a much better opportunity to observe both the immediate collision and its aftermath using telescopes and orbiting spacecraft.
The location itself is also significant for another reason. By fortunate coincidence rather than deliberate planning, the rocket is expected to strike close to the remote Einstein Crater, far from many historically important lunar landmarks, including the Apollo landing sites.
Why are scientists treating this as a rare scientific experiment?
Natural meteoroids frequently bombard the Moon, but scientists usually receive little or no warning before those impacts occur. Even when flashes are detected, many details — including the size, mass and exact speed of the incoming object — remain uncertain.
This event is different.
Researchers already know the approximate dimensions and weight of the rocket stage, its expected speed and the location where it is likely to strike. That combination allows scientists to compare observations against computer simulations with far greater confidence than would normally be possible.
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By studying the resulting crater and the cloud of material thrown into space, researchers hope to refine models explaining how impact craters develop on airless worlds and how lunar regolith behaves after violent collisions.
Current estimates suggest the impact will excavate a crater measuring somewhere between 20 and 30 metres across. Benjamin Fernando of Los Alamos National Laboratory expects it to be approximately 27 metres (90 feet) wide and around five metres (16 feet) deep, reported Sky News.
Scientists also expect enormous quantities of regolith — the loose layer of dust, rock fragments and broken material covering the Moon — to be blasted high above the surface.
Some projections suggest the dust plume could rise several kilometres into space, while streams of debris may extend for several miles beyond the impact site.
Unlike Earth, where wind and weather rapidly disperse airborne particles, the Moon offers very different conditions.
“The gravity on the moon is low and there is no wind to blow the dust away,” said Benjamin Fernando of Los Alamos National Laboratory, who’s encouraging observations by professionals and amateurs alike.
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Those conditions mean the expanding cloud of debris is expected to remain suspended long enough for detailed observations.
Although the flash generated by the impact is predicted to last for less than a second and will probably be too faint to detect from Earth, astronomers believe the ejected material itself may remain visible through telescopes for tens of minutes.
Scientists across professional observatories as well as amateur astronomy groups are therefore preparing coordinated observation campaigns. Viewing conditions are expected to be particularly favourable across the eastern United States, eastern Canada and large parts of South America.
What could researchers learn?
The August 5 collision will not be observed solely from Earth. Spacecraft already operating around the Moon are expected to provide scientists with an unprecedented before-and-after record of the impact site.
Nasa’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will photograph the location before the collision and return later to document the newly formed crater.
These images will allow researchers to compare the untouched landscape with the post-impact terrain, helping verify predictions about crater dimensions and the distribution of ejecta.
South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter will also contribute to the scientific campaign. According to Benjamin Fernando and his research team, the spacecraft is expected to pass within one or two miles of the descending rocket roughly two minutes before impact.
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Scientists point out that controlled impacts have long been used to investigate the Moon’s interior and surface properties. During Nasa’s Apollo programme, rocket stages and lunar modules were deliberately crashed onto the Moon to generate seismic signals that could be measured by instruments left behind by astronauts.
Those experiments helped researchers better understand the Moon’s internal structure.
Why does this for the Moon’s future?
Unlike Earth, the Moon has virtually no atmosphere and experiences no weather capable of reshaping its surface over time. As a result, footprints, rover tracks, spacecraft debris and impact craters can remain visible for extraordinarily long periods.
More than half a century after Nasa’s Apollo missions, the astronauts’ footprints are still preserved on the lunar surface, and scientists believe they could remain there for thousands of years if left undisturbed.
The crater expected to be created by the SpaceX rocket will become another permanent addition to the lunar landscape.
Retired astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell also stressed that although this particular event is unlikely to create immediate problems, similar incidents could have far more serious consequences in the future.
“This impact will not be a problem,” McDowell told Sky News. “But in a future where there are long-term bases on the moon, similar impacts would be an issue and we need not to leave rocket stages in chaotic orbits of this kind.”
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The warning comes at a time when lunar ambitions are accelerating across both the public and private sectors. The United States and China are both working towards returning astronauts to the Moon within the next few years.
Among those competing are Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin, which are vying to provide the lunar lander for Nasa's Artemis IV mission and the astronauts who will follow the 12 Apollo moonwalkers who explored the lunar surface decades ago.
What does international space law say?
Although no country owns the Moon, human activity can still alter its landscape forever.
The foundation of international space governance remains the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, an agreement signed by 138 states that establishes the basic legal principles governing activities beyond Earth.
Under the treaty, no nation is permitted to claim sovereignty over the Moon or any other celestial body. Instead, the lunar surface is recognised as a place to be explored and used for the benefit of all humankind.
However, experts say the treaty provides broad principles rather than detailed operational rules.
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While it clearly prohibits ownership, it contains relatively little guidance on environmental protection, heritage conservation or the practical management of increasing numbers of lunar missions.
Current international law places responsibility on individual countries to supervise the activities of their own commercial space operators and ensure compliance with both national and international obligations.
In practice, that means the United States government is responsible for overseeing SpaceX’s activities under the treaty’s framework.
What solutions are being discussed?
The United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) and the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space are exploring possible approaches to future lunar governance, including discussions on how countries should regulate the use of space resources and better coordinate activities taking place on and around the Moon.
Yet the institutions responsible for these discussions face practical limitations, according to a piece in The Conversation by Gregory Radisic, Senior Teaching Fellow of the Centre for Space, Cyberspace & Data Law.
UNOOSA operates with a workforce of only around 40 staff despite holding responsibilities that extend across the global space community.
Meanwhile, the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space convenes for only a few weeks each year, even as commercial investment in lunar exploration continues to accelerate.
Scientists and legal experts argue that the challenge is no longer a lack of guiding principles but the absence of practical systems capable of translating those principles into day-to-day operations.
Rather than creating an entirely new legal framework, many believe governments should make fuller use of provisions that already exist within the Outer Space Treaty.
One example is Article XI, which encourages countries to share information about their space activities. What was once viewed largely as a voluntary commitment is increasingly being seen as an operational necessity in an era when multiple governments and private companies may be working in close proximity on the Moon.
Among the proposals receiving growing support is the creation of a voluntary lunar registry. Such a system would allow countries to identify planned missions, surface infrastructure and locations they regard as culturally or scientifically significant.
UNOOSA already manages an international registry for satellites, but experts argue that lunar operations require far more detailed information than that system was designed to provide.
Another proposal draws inspiration from existing transport industries on Earth.
Commercial aviation relies on Notices to Airmen to alert pilots to hazards and other time-sensitive operational information, while maritime shipping uses Notices to Mariners for a similar purpose.
Researchers argue that lunar exploration could benefit from an equivalent system of standardised “Notices to Lunar Operators”, enabling organisations to identify landing zones, rover routes and activities likely to generate large amounts of dust before missions are launched.
Support has also grown for convening a fourth United Nations Conference on Outer Space, bringing together governments, scientists and commercial operators to develop practical tools capable of supporting long-term lunar exploration.
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With inputs from agencies
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