Hurricane Otis (2023): Intensified unexpectedly into a Category 5 hurricane before striking Acapulco, becoming the costliest Pacific hurricane in Mexico's history.
Hurricane Helene (2024): Grew from a weak tropical storm into a Category 4 hurricane in just two days, causing about 250 deaths across several southern U.S. states.
"The advantage of this new technique is to provide a tool to forecast rapid intensification even further out," said NSF NCAR scientist Christopher Rozoff, who led the study.
"The researchers analysed, including sea surface temperatures and upper-level wind shear, using forecasts produced betweenby NOAA'sFor Atlantic hurricanes, the model successfully predicted the probability of rapid intensification up toin advance.
In these case studies, the system not only estimated the risk of rapid intensification several days in advance but also identified which forecast tracks were most likely to support rapid strengthening.
New method flags hurricane rapid intensification up to five days ahead
five days
55 environmental and storm-related factors
U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR)
logistic regression
Weather and Forecasting
An Ensemble-Based Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Prediction Tool for Extended Lead Times
University at Albany, State University of New York
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Longer warning times for coastal communities
30 knots
35 mph
24 hours
National Hurricane Center
one to three days
55 different factors
2019 and 2024
Global Ensemble Forecast System
five days
three days
Mexico Beach in the Florida Panhandle was devastated after Hurricane Michael rapidly intensified and made landfall
Why rapid intensification is hard to predict
Hurricane Michael
70 mph
Category 5 hurricane
160 mph
$6 billion
Tyndall Air Force Base
Hurricane Harvey (2017): Rapidly strengthened before reaching Texas, bringing record rainfall to Houston and causing $160 billion in damage.
Rapidly strengthened before reaching Texas, bringing record rainfall to Houston and causing in damage. Hurricane Otis (2023): Intensified unexpectedly into a Category 5 hurricane before striking Acapulco, becoming the costliest Pacific hurricane in Mexico's history.
Intensified unexpectedly into a before striking Acapulco, becoming the costliest Pacific hurricane in Mexico's history. Hurricane Helene (2024): Grew from a weak tropical storm into a Category 4 hurricane in just two days, causing about 250 deaths across several southern U.S. states.
Tracking the most likely storm path
Testing forecasts across multiple storm scenarios
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
Hurricane Helene (2024)
Hurricane Milton (2024)
Coastal communities across the Atlantic could soon receive life-saving warnings up tobefore a hurricane rapidly strengthens, after atmospheric scientists developed a statistical tool that analysesLed by researchers at the, the team created a prediction model usingto estimate the chances that a tropical cyclone will suddenly become much stronger.The study, published in the journalunder the title, was co-authored by scientists from the, and theRapid intensification happens when a hurricane's maximum sustained winds increase by at least(about) within. Current tools used by theusually provide onlyof advance warning."The advantage of this new technique is to provide a tool to forecast rapid intensification even further out," said NSF NCAR scientist Christopher Rozoff, who led the study."This can give needed time for those in harm's way to board up their windows, evacuate, or take other steps to protect lives and property."The researchers analysed, including sea surface temperatures and upper-level wind shear, using forecasts produced betweenby NOAA'sFor Atlantic hurricanes, the model successfully predicted the probability of rapid intensification up toin advance. For storms in the eastern Pacific, it produced reliable forecasts up toahead.Meteorologists have long struggled to forecast rapid intensification, especially when weak storms become extremely powerful just before reaching land.Whenformed in the Gulf of Mexico in 2018, early forecasts predicted winds of less than. Instead, the storm quickly strengthened into awithwinds, devastating the Florida Panhandle and causingin damage atOther recent storms show the same challenge:Besides estimating how quickly a hurricane may strengthen, the new model also identifies which forecast track is most likely to experience rapid intensification. This helps meteorologists understand how small changes in a storm's path could affect the amount of energy it draws from warm ocean waters.The researchers said future work will include testing the model on more historical hurricane seasons and running it with other weather forecasting systems."There are a variety of ways to strengthen these predictions," Rozoff said. "The goal is to give forecasters enough information so they have confidence days in advance of when a hurricane is most likely to rapidly intensify."Instead of relying on a single forecast, the researchers designed the tool to analyse every member of NOAA's. Ensemble forecasting runs the same weather model several times with slightly different starting conditions, helping scientists estimate the likelihood of different storm outcomes instead of producing just one prediction. The new model calculates the chance of rapid intensification for each projected storm path, giving forecasters a better understanding of both confidence and uncertainty.The team also tested the model using recent storms, includingand. In these case studies, the system not only estimated the risk of rapid intensification several days in advance but also identified which forecast tracks were most likely to support rapid strengthening. The researchers said showing the environmental conditions behind each prediction helps forecasters understand why the model gives a high or low risk instead of treating it as a "black box."The next step is to test the model across more hurricane seasons and with additional forecasting systems. If it continues to perform well, the researchers believe it could eventually become part of day-to-day hurricane forecasting, helping emergency officials make better decisions before storms reach the coast.
