US Midterms: Can Democrats Take The Senate? New Poll Shows Blues Ahead In Two Key Races, Two Toss-Ups

News world US Midterms: Can Democrats Take The Senate? New Poll Shows Blues Ahead In Two Key Races, Two Toss-Ups

US Midterms: Can Democrats Take The Senate? New Poll Shows Blues Ahead In Two Key Races, Two Toss-Ups

Published By :

,

Last Updated: October 29, 2026, 17:42 IST

CNN polling puts Democrats ahead in Michigan and Texas, while Maine and Kansas remain toss-ups in the battle for control of the Senate.

Rapid Read

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, center, joined by former President Barack Obama and Democratic candidate Sen. Jon Ossoff, walk off stage after a rally ahead of the Georgia Primary Election on Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026, Morrow, Georgia. (IMAGE: AP PHOTO)

With less than a week to go before the US midterm elections, Democrats have reasons to believe that a Senate takeover may be within reach — even if the finish line remains some distance away.

Fresh polling by CNN across four key Senate races finds Democrats well-positioned in Michigan and Texas, while the contests in Maine and Kansas remain too close to call. The findings point to a political map that has shifted in unexpected ways, giving Democrats a shot at wresting control of the Senate from Republicans.

That prospect had appeared largely out of reach earlier this year. But with President Donald Trump’s approval ratings underwater even in states he won comfortably in 2024, some contests that once looked safely Republican are now competitive.

The numbers do not guarantee a Democratic victory. They do, however, suggest that the party enters the final stretch with more routes to a Senate majority than it had a few months ago.

Michigan: El-Sayed Opens Up Lead Over Rogers

In Michigan, a perennial battleground state, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has established a lead over Republican Mike Rogers among likely voters, according to CNN’s polling.

El-Sayed leads Rogers 49% to 42%, a seven-point advantage in a race that could prove consequential for control of the Senate.

At A Glance 1 . In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 49% to 42% among likely voters. 2 . Among Hamilton's supporters in Kansas, 59% stated their backing was driven primarily by opposition to Republican nominee Marshall. 3 . In Maine, Susan Collins holds a net-negative favourability rating with 54% of likely voters viewing her unfavourably. 4 . CNN polling in Maine found that 42% of likely voters reported seeing advertising supporting Collins, compared with 27% for Jackson. Show More

The poll suggests that Michigan’s Democratic base may be consolidating behind El-Sayed, while some Republicans appear less enthusiastic about turning out. That combination could matter in a state where even relatively small changes in turnout can reshape the result.

Texas: Democrats See An Opening

Texas is another state where Democrats have reason to be encouraged. The Senate contest between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton has become part of a broader effort by the party to compete in territory that Republicans have long treated as favourable.

CNN’s polling across the four states places Democrats in a strong position in Texas, adding to the possibility that the party could make gains beyond the traditional battlegrounds.

The wider political environment may be helping Democrats. Trump’s standing has weakened even in states he carried decisively in 2024, creating openings in races where Republican candidates might otherwise have expected a more comfortable contest.

The result in Texas could have implications well beyond the state itself. A Democratic victory would represent a significant breakthrough in a state that has remained a central Republican stronghold in federal elections.

Kansas: Republican Unpopularity Gives Democrats A Chance

Kansas offers another example of how a race can tighten when the Republican candidate struggles to win over voters who are not firmly behind the party.

According to CNN, Democrat Hamilton is outperforming the party’s broader position despite being a less familiar candidate. The poll suggests that Republican nominee Marshall’s own unpopularity may be a central factor.

Most likely voters surveyed viewed Marshall negatively. Among Hamilton’s supporters, 59% said their backing was driven primarily by opposition to Marshall.

That points to a contest in which dissatisfaction with the Republican candidate could be as important as enthusiasm for the Democrat. Hamilton’s challenge is to convert that discontent into enough votes to win, while Marshall needs to persuade voters who are unhappy with his party that he remains their preferred choice.

Maine: Collins Faces Voters With A Dim View Of The GOP

In Maine, the Senate race between Republican Susan Collins and Democrat Jackson remains unsettled, according to CNN’s polling. The contest appears to be turning heavily on voters’ perceptions of Collins herself.

About three-quarters of likely voters backing either candidate said their choice was motivated more by Collins than by Jackson. Collins had a net-negative favourability rating, with 54% viewing her unfavourably. Jackson’s rating was also slightly negative, with 46% viewing her unfavourably and 39% favourably.

The poll also found an imbalance in campaign visibility: 42% of likely voters reported seeing advertising supporting Collins, compared with 27% who had seen advertising for Jackson.

Collins faces a difficult backdrop. Views of the Republican Party were more negative in Maine than in any of the other three states surveyed, according to CNN. That means she may need to persuade voters dissatisfied with the GOP that she deserves to be judged separately from the party.

Yet the contest is not settled. While Jackson’s supporters remain more motivated to vote, the enthusiasm gap has narrowed. CNN found that 79% of Jackson’s supporters were extremely motivated to vote, compared with 62% of Collins’ backers. Since early September, strong motivation among Collins’ supporters had risen by nine percentage points, while Jackson’s remained steady.

That shift could matter in a close race, where turnout may prove decisive.

Can Democrats Take The Senate?

The CNN polling offers Democrats a more encouraging picture than they might have expected earlier in the year. A lead in Michigan, a favourable position in Texas and competitive contests in Maine and Kansas give the party several possible paths to gains.

But the findings do not amount to a forecast of a sweeping Democratic victory. Two races remain without a clear leader, and even a polling advantage in the other two does not guarantee a win on November 3.

News18 Newsletter Handpicked stories, in your inbox A newsletter with the best of our journalism submit

Quick Answers Powered by Ask News18 Which two key Senate races show Democrats ahead in the recent CNN poll? According to CNN's polling ahead of the US midterm elections, Democrats are currently well-positioned with a lead in Michigan and Texas. How are the Senate races shaping up in Maine and Kansas? The contests in Maine and Kansas remain too close to call. In Kansas, Democrat Hamilton is outperforming expectations partly due to the unpopularity of Republican nominee Marshall, while in Maine, Republican Susan Collins faces a tough race with a net-negative favourability rating against Democrat Jackson. What factor is helping Democrats find unexpected paths to a Senate majority? Democrats are benefiting from a shifting political map and President Donald Trump’s underwater approval ratings even in states he won comfortably in 2024, which has made normally safe Republican contests competitive. Powered by Ask News18

About the Author Shankhyaneel Sarkar Shankhyaneel Sarkar is a chief sub editor at News18. He covers international affairs, where he focuses on breaking news to in-depth analyses. He has over seven years of experience during which he has ... Read More

Check out Get Israel Election Results 2026 Live UpdatesCheck out Compare India ✅ to explore the latest commerce deals, exclusive discounts, and top shopping offers.

ADD YOUR COMMENT

Location : Washington D.C., United States of America (USA)

First Published: October 29, 2026, 17:42 IST

Disclaimer: Comments reflect users’ views, not News18’s. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy Loading comments...