Skymet Downgrades Monsoon 2026 Forecast to Drought ( -15% of LPA)Key Takeaways:Skymet has revised the 2026 southwest monsoon forecast to 85% of LPA, with a 70% probability of drought.
August rainfall is forecast at 84% of LPA, while September rainfall is projected at 80% of LPA.
AdvertisementSkymet Weather Services Private Limited, India’s leading weather analytics firm, had released its monsoon forecast 2026 on Apr 07, 2026, and is now updating the forecast.
AdvertisementVarious weather agencies, including Skymet Weather, had predicted a below-normal monsoon for the year 2026.
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to develop, but there remains some uncertainty in its timing and strength.”Considering the evolving scenario, Skymet Weather has updated the monsoon 2026 forecast to 85% rainfall of LPA.
Skymet Downgrades Monsoon 2026 Forecast to Drought ( -15% of LPA)
Key Takeaways:
Skymet has revised the 2026 southwest monsoon forecast to 85% of LPA, with a 70% probability of drought.
Countrywide rainfall between June 01 and July 31, 2026, remained 13% below LPA.
August rainfall is forecast at 84% of LPA, while September rainfall is projected at 80% of LPA.
Strengthening El Nino conditions and uncertainty surrounding the positive IOD are expected to weigh on the remaining monsoon season.
Forecast Validity: Remainder of Southwest Monsoon 2026.
Advertisement
Skymet Weather Services Private Limited, India’s leading weather analytics firm, had released its monsoon forecast 2026 on Apr 07, 2026, and is now updating the forecast. Skymet foresees a 70% chance of drought and expects the seasonal rainfall to be 85% of the Long Period Average (LPA). Advertisement
Various weather agencies, including Skymet Weather, had predicted a below-normal monsoon for the year 2026. The southwest monsoon nearly stalled during the onset phase, and the month of June abysmally ended with 65% rainfall of the Long Period Average (LPA).
Monsoon made a speedy start in July but hit a roadblock of ‘break monsoon’ during the second week. However, the second half of the month performed satisfactorily and finished at the break-even point. Halfway through the monsoon, between June 01, 2026 and July 31, 2026, there was a countrywide deficit of 13% rainfall of LPA.
The month of August is likely to have an inequitable distribution over the four homogeneous regions of the country. Skymet predicts that August may end with a monthly shortfall of 16% rainfall of LPA. Growing El Nino and weak Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will cast a shadow, and the month of September is likely to be rain-deficit by 20% of LPA.
As per our Managing Director, Jatin Singh, “The El Nino is gaining strength. Strong coupling of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation across the equatorial Pacific Ocean is raising the probability of a powerful El Nino. It is likely to make a transition from the ‘strong’ to ‘very strong’ category during early September. The ‘Super El Nino’ events tend to tilt the odds and presage a weaker monsoon. Positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to develop, but there remains some uncertainty in its timing and strength.”
Considering the evolving scenario, Skymet Weather has updated the monsoon 2026 forecast to 85% rainfall of LPA. On a monthly basis, the Monsoon Forecast is as follows:
August – 84% of LPA (LPA being 254.9 mm)
70% chance of deficit rain
20% chance of below-normal rain
10% chance of normal rain
September – 80% of LPA (LPA being 167.9 mm)
70% chance of deficit rain
20% chance of below-normal rain
10% chance of normal rain
According to Skymet’s assessment, the following is the monsoon risk spread over the four-month period of June to September (JJAS) (with an error margin of +/- 4%):
