Now in its 12th year, the NDA is likely to win 326 seats if elections are held today - a decline of 26 seats from the previous MOTN survey in January, which predicted 352 seats.
Consequently, the INDIA bloc's tally is unlikely to see any substantial gains as compared to the January MOTN survey.
While the latest poll predicts 185 seats for the Congress-led alliance, the January 2026 survey projected 182 seats.
The Mood of the Nation is a bi-annual survey that's been commissioned by the India Today Group for around two decades now.
The August 2026 MOTN has predicted 261 seats for the BJP if elections are held today.
The BJP-led NDA remains well placed to retain power if Lok Sabha elections are held today, but its popularity appears to be showing signs of wear, according to the latest India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation survey. Now in its 12th year, the NDA is likely to win 326 seats if elections are held today - a decline of 26 seats from the previous MOTN survey in January, which predicted 352 seats.
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While it may be a far cry from the '400 paar' slogan given by Prime Minister Narendra Modi ahead of the 2024 election campaign, the numbers show that the trust of the voters in the NDA is intact as it faces a challenge in tackling the Gen Z factor ahead of 2029.
Consequently, the INDIA bloc's tally is unlikely to see any substantial gains as compared to the January MOTN survey. While the latest poll predicts 185 seats for the Congress-led alliance, the January 2026 survey projected 182 seats. It marks a major drop from the 234 seats the INDIA bloc won in 2024 - the closest the opposition came to challenging the NDA since 2014.
The Mood of the Nation is a bi-annual survey that's been commissioned by the India Today Group for around two decades now. The August 2026 edition was conducted by CVoter with a sample of 25,184 people directly surveyed between July 1 and August 25. Another set of 91,795 interviews conducted over the last six months as part of CVoter's regular tracking was also used to formulate the findings of the August 2026 MOTN.
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A party-wise breakdown shows an interesting facet.
The August 2026 MOTN has predicted 261 seats for the BJP if elections are held today. Just six months ago, the survey projected 287 seats - comfortably above the 272 magic number. Even then, the forecast is well above the 240 seats it won in the 2024 polls.
However, it does imply a modest erosion in support for the BJP, which has recently faced the wrath of Gen Z over exam paper leaks and irregularities in the education system. Sustained student protests at Delhi's Jantar Mantar in July eventually forced Dharmendra Pradhan to resign as Education Minister - a rare occurrence in the Modi era.
On the other hand, the numbers are promising for the Congress, with Rahul Gandhi adopting a new playbook to corner the BJP.
As per the latest poll, the party is expected to win 106 seats - a sharp rise from the 80 seats forecast in the January edition. The forecast is higher than the 97 seats predicted in the August 2025 edition.
The forecast comes against the backdrop of a notable increase in the Congress's visibility in the way it has been raising hot-button issues, ranging from women's reservation to the police crackdown on student protesters on July 20.
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In terms of vote share, the NDA is likely to see a marginal dip (45.1%) from the January MOTN forecast (47%). It is the lowest since the August 2025 survey, which predicted a 46.7% vote share. The NDA got 44% of the votes in the 2024 polls.
For the INDIA bloc, the latest survey predicts a 39.1% vote share, a negligible increase from the 39% forecast in the January MOTN poll.
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