News ServicesNext-generation tuberculosis vaccines could become available from 2029 and, if widely deployed in low- and middle-income countries, could prevent millions of deaths over the following two decades.
Next-generation tuberculosis vaccines could become available starting in 2029.
Tuberculosis remains one of the leading causes of death from infectious diseases worldwide.
Access and Production ChallengesBCG, the only licensed tuberculosis vaccine, has been in use for about a century.
According to a review published in 2026, 18 tuberculosis vaccines were in clinical development, including six in phase 3.
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Next-generation tuberculosis vaccines could become available from 2029 and, if widely deployed in low- and middle-income countries, could prevent millions of deaths over the following two decades.
Africa stands to benefit significantly because it accounts for about a quarter of global tuberculosis cases, while current BCG vaccination offers limited protection against pulmonary TB in adolescents and adults.
The potential impact remains uncertain because leading candidates are still in clinical trials, and their long-term effectiveness, affordability, supply and suitability for different populations have yet to be established.
Next-generation tuberculosis vaccines could become available starting in 2029. According to a new analysis supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, their rollout in low- and middle-income countries, including African countries, could prevent up to 7.3 million deaths between 2030 and 2050 and generate as much as $135 billion in economic benefits.
“Novel TB vaccines could be the next blockbuster immunisation tool,” said Dr. Sania Nishtar, Gavi’s chief executive, adding that their potential will depend on ensuring sufficient, predictable and affordable supplies for countries with the highest disease burden.
Tuberculosis remains one of the leading causes of death from infectious diseases worldwide. In 2024, 10.7 million people developed the disease and 1.23 million died from it, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Africa accounted for about 25% of new cases, representing roughly 2.7 million people.
Africa has made progress. Between 2015 and 2024, tuberculosis incidence fell by 28% and deaths declined by 46%, although the pace of improvement remains insufficient to meet international targets.
Access and Production Challenges
BCG, the only licensed tuberculosis vaccine, has been in use for about a century. It mainly protects infants and young children against severe forms of the disease but provides limited protection against pulmonary tuberculosis in adolescents and adults. The new vaccine candidates are intended primarily for those populations.
Gavi estimates that annual demand in low- and middle-income countries could average 86 million vaccination courses. Demand would be higher in the first few years, particularly as countries with a high disease burden seek to expand protection across multiple age groups.
To avoid shortages once the vaccines become available, the Geneva-based organization plans to focus on three areas: securing adequate supply at affordable prices, preparing national vaccination programs, and supporting a diverse and competitive manufacturing base.
Caution Around Expectations
The estimate that 7.3 million lives could be saved comes from modeling rather than observed outcomes. The model assumes, among other things, vaccine efficacy of 50% and protection that gradually declines over 10 years.
One candidate, M72/AS01E, showed about 50% efficacy over three years among adults infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the bacterium that causes the disease, but longer-term protection remains unknown. WHO also notes that its effectiveness in uninfected people, adolescents and people living with HIV has yet to be established.
Several Other Candidates
M72/AS01E is not the only advanced candidate. According to a review published in 2026, 18 tuberculosis vaccines were in clinical development, including six in phase 3. Phase 3 trials typically involve several thousand participants and are designed to assess how well a vaccine prevents disease while monitoring adverse effects in a larger population.
The candidates include MTBVAC, VPM1002, GamTBvac and MIP. MTBVAC is being tested in a phase 3 trial involving more than 7,000 newborns in South Africa, Senegal and Madagascar. A phase 2b trial is also evaluating the candidate in about 5,500 adolescents and adults in South Africa, Kenya and Tanzania.
Africa’s vaccination strategy may therefore eventually involve more than one vaccine. Authorities may have to choose among approved vaccines based on their effectiveness, duration of protection, price, target populations and production capacity. New vaccines will also need to be integrated with existing tuberculosis-control strategies, including short-course preventive treatment. In 2024, 5.3 million people at high risk of tuberculosis began preventive treatment worldwide.
Ayi Renaud Dossavi
