India Builds Clean Power Faster Than It Can Use It

- US oil majors are increasingly prioritizing upstream investment in the US and the wider Americas region as Donald Trump’s war against Iran has slashed their 2026 production outlook. - Despite extremely positive Q2 results for most majors, with both Exxon and Chevron posting double-digit billion-dollar returns, the gains were almost entirely driven by price effects, not production growth. - Chevron was the only US major to post quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year production growth, whilst Shell’s output fell by a whopping 300,000 b/d. - To offset production losses in Qatar and Oman, ExxonMobil has boosted its US production to a record 2.1 million b/d, whilst Chevron has been at the forefront of Venezuela’s upstream revival. - US oil majors’ bumper profits in the wake of the US-Iran war have allowed for drastic reductions in their net debt, with Chevron and ExxonMobil paying down $8 billion and $7 billion, respectively.

In the latest edition of the Numbers Report, we will take a look at some of the most interesting figures put out this week in the energy and metals sectors. Each week we’ll dig into some data and provide a bit of explanation on what drives the numbers. Let’s take a look.

Numbers Report – August 21, 2026

In the latest edition of the Numbers Report, we will take a look at some of the most interesting figures put out this week in the energy and metals sectors. Each week we’ll dig into some data and provide a bit of explanation on what drives the numbers.

Let’s take a look.

1. US Oil Majors Turn Homeward as War Hits Output

- US oil majors are increasingly prioritizing upstream investment in the US and the wider Americas region as Donald Trump’s war against Iran has slashed their 2026 production outlook.

- Despite extremely positive Q2 results for most majors, with both Exxon and Chevron posting double-digit billion-dollar returns, the gains were almost entirely driven by price effects, not production growth.

- Chevron was the only US major to post quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year production growth, whilst Shell’s output fell by a whopping 300,000 b/d.

- To offset production losses in Qatar and Oman, ExxonMobil has boosted its US production to a record 2.1 million b/d, whilst Chevron has been at the forefront of Venezuela’s upstream revival.

- US oil majors’ bumper profits in the wake of the US-Iran war have allowed for drastic reductions in their net debt, with Chevron and ExxonMobil paying down $8 billion and $7 billion, respectively.

2. Europe’s Power System Runs Into Hot Water

- Europe’s coastal and fluvial regions will be facing growing challenges as rising temperatures cause more frequent disruptions to marine and freshwater systems, constraining cooling water operations and lowering thermal efficiency.

- The average water temperature in the Mediterranean stood at 27° C last month, the highest for any July on record, leading to an overpopulation of jellyfish clogging cooling water systems in nuclear power plants across France.

- Hotter seas are contributing to longer heat on land as seawater temperatures for longer periods of time, exacerbating heatwaves that have resulted in more than 25,000 deaths this summer.

- Europe has become the fastest-warming continent globally, with climate change lifting temperatures in the Mediterranean and Western Europe by 2° C and 1.4° C, respectively.

- The United Kingdom’s Met Office national weather forecaster predicted that this year’s El Nino will likely be the strongest on record, with a 3° C rise in equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures.

3. India Builds Clean Power Faster Than It Can Use It

- The most coal-dependent major economy globally (70% of power generated), India has been quietly working to boost its renewable energy capacity, with generation capacity for clean energy sources now totalling 331 GW.

- This compares with 302 GW for fossil fuels, with 2026 marking an exceptional year for India’s renewables as utility companies added 81 GW of new capacity, marking a 28% year-over-year increase.

- The overwhelming majority of this year’s incremental capacity came from solar, bringing the total capacity to 211 GW, only 40 GW shy of India’s total installed coal capacity.

- Yet despite the massive capacity available, actual generation has barely changed compared to previous years – solar and wind accounted for roughly 20% of power supply last month, whilst the share of coal has dipped slightly to 67%.

- The next stage in India’s renewable energy expansion will revolve around upgrading grid infrastructure and building up battery storage as 10-15% of its generated solar energy is still curtailed.

4. Panama Canal Becomes the Fast Lane for US LNG to Asia

- Laden LNG transits through the Panama Canal reached a 3-year high last month, with 12 vessels passing through the waterway as Asian buyers scramble for available LNG cargoes.

- With Asia’s spot LNG benchmark price JKM still trending around $23 per MMBtu, US sellers are incentivized to deliver liquefied gas as quickly as possible, avoiding the 45-day-long route around the Cape of Good Hope.

- Half of LNG carriers transiting the Panama Canal last month were bound to Japan, with China and South Korea taking in two US LNG cargoes each.

- Capping potential transits ahead, the Panama Canal Authority has announced that it would cap daily transits from September onwards as a longer-than-usual El Nino season is expected to reduce water levels.

- Initially, daily transits would be limited to 34 daily vessels, to be reduced further to 32 transits from mid-September, with the waterway’s nameplate transit capacity set at 40 vessels per day.

5. Mine Safety Crackdown Ignites China’s Coking Coal Rally

- Chinese coking coal prices jumped to a 2-year high after a deadly mining accident in Shanxi province triggered a widespread government drive to inspect the safety of existing mines.

- Coking coal futures traded on the Dalian exchange soared 15% this week to ¥1,580 per tonne ($235 per tonne) as stockpiles of the metallurgical feedstock continue to dry up.

- As much as 130 mtpa of coking coal production capacity was suspended immediately after the Liushenyu mine disaster, with some 60 mtpa still offline as of mid-August.

- With 10% of domestic coking coal supply shut due to safety checks, China’s steel industry is forced to ramp up imports of metallurgical coal, with June inflows up 34% year-over-year.

- Analysts expect prices to be higher for longer as another mining accident at a thermal coal mine in Hunan last week hardened the government’s resolve to shut all shoddy mines.

6. Big Tech’s Power Crunch Becomes a Gas Emissions Problem

- More than $100 billion was spent by data center developers worldwide on new natural gas plants, with the spending craze on dedicated gas power generation plants set to lift US emissions over the upcoming decades.

- Currently, the entire US electric power industry emits some 1,485 million metric tonnes of carbon annually, with natural gas accounting for 45-50% of total emissions within the power sector.

- According to Bloomberg, the 99 proposed gas plants would emit about 318 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide annually if run at industry-standard rates, lifting US power sector emissions by 20%.

- Whilst not all the currently proposed projects would be ultimately built, investments into power generation are expected to stay high for quite some time – the IEA projects a decade-high of $330 billion in natural gas development this year.

- More than a third of upcoming US data centre-linked gas plants are to be built in Texas, benefitting from a historically forgiving regulatory environment for energy projects.

7. Copper Backwardation Blows Out as Metal Heads to America

- An exceptional surge in copper shipments towards the United States has triggered a spike in cash LME prices, leading to the steepest copper futures backwardation in 5 years.

- Spot LME copper prices are trading some $550 per tonne above the benchmark 3-month LME futures contract, with restricted availability of the key transition metal putting a premium on prompt deliveries.

- LME copper inventories posted an unprecedented 42-day streak of declines in June-July, as US imports of copper have averaged 200-220,000 metric tonnes in recent months.

- According to positioning reports published by the London Metal Exchange, three trading companies held unusually large positions in the August contract, exceeding available live stocks of only 103,075 tonnes.

- The ensuing short squeeze has led LME short position holders to scramble for physical metal deliveries, only for the same copper to be delivered into CME warehouses in the US (¬60% of global exchange inventory by this point).

That’s it for this week’s Numbers Report. Thanks for reading, and we’ll see you next week.