Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds sharply on Monday as hopes for a US-Iran deal to end the war in the Middle East and reopen the Strait of Hormuz weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and Oil prices.
The latest headlines triggers a sharp decline in crude Oil prices on Monday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down more than 5% at the time of writing.
A higher interest rate environment typically acts as a headwind for non-yielding assets like Gold.
That said, until there is more clarity on the negotiations, Gold’s upside may remain limited and continue to be driven largely by movements in the US Dollar, Oil prices and shifting interest rate expectations.
Focus later this week will shift to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation report on Thursday and speeches from several Fed officials for additional clues on the interest rate outlook.
Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds sharply on Monday as hopes for a US-Iran deal to end the war in the Middle East and reopen the Strait of Hormuz weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and Oil prices. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,572, up 1.40% on the day.
Optimism over a possible breakthrough in negotiations intensified after US President Donald Trump said talks with Iran were progressing in an “orderly and constructive manner.”
A potential deal reportedly includes a 60-day ceasefire extension, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of the US naval blockade to Iranian ports, while negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program would continue.
Reuters also reported that Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said progress had been made on a “large portion” of the discussions through Pakistan-mediated talks. However, he stressed that a final agreement was not yet imminent. Trump also said there was “no rush” to finalize a deal.
Meanwhile, a report from The Wall Street Journal on Monday suggested negotiations continue to face hurdles over disagreements tied to Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief.
The latest headlines triggers a sharp decline in crude Oil prices on Monday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down more than 5% at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, retreats toward the 99.00 mark.
For Gold, a successful agreement could significantly alter the recent macro narrative that has pressured bullion since the start of the war, as rising Oil prices fueled inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed), may need to raise borrowing costs.
A higher interest rate environment typically acts as a headwind for non-yielding assets like Gold. Markets are currently pricing in nearly a 40% chance of a 25 basis point hike at the Fed’s December meeting, according to CME FedWatch data.
However, if a deal is reached and the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, further declines in Oil prices could ease fears of an energy-driven inflation shock, potentially cooling expectations that the Fed may need to raise interest rates again.
That said, until there is more clarity on the negotiations, Gold’s upside may remain limited and continue to be driven largely by movements in the US Dollar, Oil prices and shifting interest rate expectations.
Still, ongoing central bank buying and firm investment demand continue to provide an important longer-term support pillar for bullion, helping limit deeper downside pressure.
Looking ahead, investors will keep a close eye on further headlines surrounding the US-Iran negotiations for fresh direction. Focus later this week will shift to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation report on Thursday and speeches from several Fed officials for additional clues on the interest rate outlook.
Technical Analysis: XAU/USD needs to break above the 100-day SMA to revive bullish momentum
XAU/USD holds above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at roughly $4,381, keeping a broader constructive backdrop, but remains capped by the 100-day SMA near $4,800, which limits immediate upside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 44 on the daily chart leans slightly negative, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator sits below zero with a mildly negative histogram reading, together suggesting subdued momentum and a consolidative, range-bound bias between these key moving averages.
On the downside, initial support aligns with the nearby horizontal floor around $4,500, ahead of the more significant 200-day SMA cluster just above $4,381, where dip-buying interest could re-emerge if bears press their advantage.
On the topside, a sustained break above the 100-day SMA at approximately $4,800 would be needed to ease the current cap and open the way toward the psychological resistance band around $5,000, where prior supply defines the next key obstacle for bulls.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
