Renewed hostilities in the Horn of Africa threaten Red Sea shipping, regional stability and India’s maritime and commercial interests.
The immediate tensions centre on renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia, where federal forces are battling a Tigrayan-led opposition alliance.
The African Union, which mediated the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, faces renewed pressure to prevent another war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
An expanded conflict could also complicate India’s engagement with countries across the Horn of Africa and affect regional development and connectivity initiatives.
Encouraging de-escalation, supporting diplomatic engagement and backing renewed regional mediation would be important elements of an Indian response, alongside efforts to safeguard its maritime interests.
Renewed hostilities in the Horn of Africa threaten Red Sea shipping, regional stability and India’s maritime and commercial interests.
The growing confrontation between Ethiopia and Eritrea threatens to widen instability across the Horn of Africa, raising concerns for India over maritime security, trade and the safety of vital international shipping routes.
Renewed fighting in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, mutual accusations of interference and a breakdown in diplomatic relations have heightened fears of another conflict in a region already affected by war and unresolved disputes.
The tensions extend beyond the two neighbours. Sudan’s ongoing civil war and Ethiopia’s longstanding dispute with Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam add to an increasingly volatile regional environment. For India, whose commercial and energy interests depend on secure maritime routes, developments in the Horn of Africa have implications beyond the continent.
Dr Rashmi Rani Anand, Assistant Professor at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, told StratNewsGlobal that the escalation was “not merely a localized border disagreement but it is a geopolitical and regional crisis.”
She warned that instability along the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait could disrupt “vital sea lines of communication and inflate economic costs worldwide”.
“We cannot afford to watch this corridor collapse into a multi-front theatre of war,” Anand said, stressing the importance of restoring peace and stability across the Horn of Africa.
The immediate tensions centre on renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia, where federal forces are battling a Tigrayan-led opposition alliance. The Ethiopian government has accused Eritrea of supporting armed groups opposed to it, allegations rejected by Asmara.
Relations deteriorated further after the reciprocal expulsion of diplomats and Ethiopia’s announcement that it would close its embassy in Asmara. Eritrea subsequently announced that it was severing diplomatic relations with Ethiopia.
The confrontation has deep historical roots. Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993 following a prolonged armed struggle. The two countries fought a devastating border war between 1998 and 2000 before Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s diplomatic outreach in 2018 brought a temporary improvement in relations.
That rapprochement has since unravelled amid renewed disagreements over security, territorial sovereignty and Ethiopia’s efforts to secure direct access to the sea.
Landlocked Ethiopia relies heavily on external ports for its international trade. Abiy’s repeated emphasis on obtaining Red Sea access has raised concerns in Eritrea, which regards its coastline and strategic ports, including Assab, as matters of national sovereignty. The dispute over maritime access has therefore become an additional source of tension between the neighbours.
The renewed confrontation also threatens the Pretoria Agreement of 2022, which ended the devastating conflict between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). A return to hostilities could undermine the agreement’s gains and worsen humanitarian conditions, including civilian displacement.
The wider regional context makes the crisis more difficult to contain. Sudan’s civil war has generated competing allegations of cross-border interference, while Ethiopia’s dispute with Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam continues to strain relations between the two countries.
Anand drew on political scientist Barry Buzan’s concept of regional security complexes, which explains how closely connected security concerns can make it difficult to understand the actions of individual states in isolation.
“Every capital presents a grievance, yet every state action invites counter-escalation,” she observed.
She also highlighted the humanitarian consequences of the region’s overlapping conflicts, with civilians bearing the brunt of displacement, food insecurity and prolonged violence.
The African Union, which mediated the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, faces renewed pressure to prevent another war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Anand argued that the crisis highlights the limitations of regional and international institutions when states themselves are parties to conflicts and external powers take sides.
For India, the most immediate concerns are maritime and commercial. The Red Sea connects the Indian Ocean with the Suez Canal and European markets, while the Bab al-Mandab Strait is a critical chokepoint for international shipping. Prolonged instability could force vessels to take longer routes, raising freight charges, insurance premiums and the cost of transporting energy.
An expanded conflict could also complicate India’s engagement with countries across the Horn of Africa and affect regional development and connectivity initiatives.
The confrontation thus presents New Delhi with a regional stability challenge that is closely linked to its maritime and commercial interests. Encouraging de-escalation, supporting diplomatic engagement and backing renewed regional mediation would be important elements of an Indian response, alongside efforts to safeguard its maritime interests.
