The second force is compositional.
Nearly half the countries in Pew’s sample are middle-income, and this is precisely where China enjoys its clearest advantage over the United States.
Pew finds favorability toward China markedly higher in the emerging economies of Africa, Latin America, and South and Southeast Asia than in wealthy nations, with record highs this year in Colombia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, and Turkey.
Meanwhile, the United States has been hemorrhaging goodwill in the high-income democracies that were once its reservoir of admiration.
With China gaining in the Global South and the United States losing its allies’ affection, the two trends compounded—one stepping forward exactly as the other stepped back—and the crossover became almost arithmetically inevitable.
The second force is compositional. Nearly half the countries in Pew’s sample are middle-income, and this is precisely where China enjoys its clearest advantage over the United States. Pew finds favorability toward China markedly higher in the emerging economies of Africa, Latin America, and South and Southeast Asia than in wealthy nations, with record highs this year in Colombia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, and Turkey. Meanwhile, the United States has been hemorrhaging goodwill in the high-income democracies that were once its reservoir of admiration. With China gaining in the Global South and the United States losing its allies’ affection, the two trends compounded—one stepping forward exactly as the other stepped back—and the crossover became almost arithmetically inevitable.
