Today’s swift bearish reaction in USD/JPY comes right after the retest of a key pullback resistance level at around 160.30, a former major ascending trendline support from the 22 April 2025 low (see Fig.
Today’s decline in USD/JPY has sent it below the key 200-day moving average and erased all its gains from the prior one month, since the 3 August 2026 low of 155.23 (see Fig.
Hence, USD/JPY may now form a potential minor dead cat bounce at the near-term support of 156.32, towards the near-term resistance of 157.30.
Watch the 158.04/50 key short-term pivotal resistance (also the 200-day moving average).
On the other hand, a clearance and an hourly close above 158.50 would invalidate the bearish scenario, triggering a squeeze up to retest the next intermediate resistance at 159.18/54 (20-day moving average) (see Fig.
Today’s swift bearish reaction in USD/JPY comes right after the retest of a key pullback resistance level at around 160.30, a former major ascending trendline support from the 22 April 2025 low (see Fig. 2).
Today’s decline in USD/JPY has sent it below the key 200-day moving average and erased all its gains from the prior one month, since the 3 August 2026 low of 155.23 (see Fig. 2).
The current steep intraday decline in USD/JPY has pushed the hourly RSI momentum indicator into oversold territory, but there is no clear bullish divergence at this juncture (see Fig. 3).
Hence, USD/JPY may now form a potential minor dead cat bounce at the near-term support of 156.32, towards the near-term resistance of 157.30.
Watch the 158.04/50 key short-term pivotal resistance (also the 200-day moving average). If this zone is not surpassed to the upside, the odds are skewed towards a new potential bearish impulsive down-move sequence next, which could expose the next intermediate supports at 155.03 and 153.84 in the first step (see Fig. 3).
On the other hand, a clearance and an hourly close above 158.50 would invalidate the bearish scenario, triggering a squeeze up to retest the next intermediate resistance at 159.18/54 (20-day moving average) (see Fig. 3).
