Congress has voted to expand the president’s powers to declare a state of emergency and deploy the military to the streets.
Politics, Geopolitics & ConflictAusterity measures in Bolivia have gone too far, too fast, putting the president’s political longevity in question.
Congress has voted to expand the president’s powers to declare a state of emergency and deploy the military to the streets.
Rubaya, one of the world’s key coltan mining areas, reportedly accounts for roughly 15% of global supply and has been under M23 control since 2024.
Berlin’s decision to secure long-term LNG supply from Canada’s planned Ksi Lisims export terminal comes as Germany has already spent years trying to replace Russian pipeline gas.
The Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group, which controls large parts of eastern Congo, is now attempting to become a direct supplier of critical minerals to the U.S. M23 leaders are pitching access to tantalum, tin, and tungsten in hopes that the Trump administration will view the group less as a sanctioned armed movement and more as a potential geopolitical partner in the global race for critical minerals. The region contains some of the world’s…
Austerity measures in Bolivia have gone too far, too fast, putting the president’s political longevity in question. Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz, who came into office six months ago, backed by Washington and promising market-oriented reforms during a severe economic crisis, is now facing nationwide unrest after scrapping fuel subsidies, pursuing austerity measures, and attempting land reforms that triggered fears of consolidation by larger agricultural interests. What began as protests from small farmers has now expanded into a massive anti-government movement involving unions, indigenous groups, and sectors already struggling with inflation, shortages, and rising living costs. Road blockades have paralyzed major transport corridors and worsened fuel shortages, creating a self-reinforcing economic spiral that is costing the country tens of millions of dollars per day. Congress has voted to expand the president’s powers to declare a state of emergency and deploy the military to the streets.
Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Austerity measures in Bolivia have gone too far, too fast, putting the president’s political longevity in question. Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz, who came into office six months ago, backed by Washington and promising market-oriented reforms during a severe economic crisis, is now facing nationwide unrest after scrapping fuel subsidies, pursuing austerity measures, and attempting land reforms that triggered fears of consolidation by larger agricultural interests. What began as protests from small farmers has now expanded into a massive anti-government movement involving unions, indigenous groups, and sectors already struggling with inflation, shortages, and rising living costs. Road blockades have paralyzed major transport corridors and worsened fuel shortages, creating a self-reinforcing economic spiral that is costing the country tens of millions of dollars per day. Congress has voted to expand the president’s powers to declare a state of emergency and deploy the military to the streets.
The Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group, which controls large parts of eastern Congo, is now attempting to become a direct supplier of critical minerals to the U.S. M23 leaders are pitching access to tantalum, tin, and tungsten in hopes that the Trump administration will view the group less as a sanctioned armed movement and more as a potential geopolitical partner in the global race for critical minerals. The region contains some of the world’s most important reserves of cobalt and coltan, both essential for defense systems, semiconductors, and EV manufacturing. Rubaya, one of the world’s key coltan mining areas, reportedly accounts for roughly 15% of global supply and has been under M23 control since 2024. The contradiction for Washington is obvious; however, M23 is hedging that a desperate DC will lower its standards now. The U.S. has sanctioned Rwanda and backed Congo’s central government on strategic minerals cooperation, while the same mineral supply chain is increasingly tied to territory controlled by armed groups accused of smuggling, violence, and illicit resource extraction.
Kazakhstan is effectively siding with Moscow in the Gazprom-Naftogaz dispute despite initially allowing a court inside the Astana International Financial Centre to recognize Ukraine’s $1.4 billion arbitration award against Gazprom. Just days before Putin’s visit to Astana, Kazakhstan declared that the ruling would not actually be enforced inside the country and criticized the court itself for even accepting the case. Kazakhstan remains structurally tied to Russian energy infrastructure. Gazprom’s stake in KazRosGaz is critical to processing associated gas from Kazakhstan’s giant Karachaganak field through Russia’s Orenburg facility, while Russian transit routes are still key to regional gas flows into Uzbekistan. Any serious seizure attempt against Gazprom assets could immediately threaten Kazakhstan’s own production system. What Kazakhstan appears to have received in return is a long-term strategic and financial commitment from Moscow. During Putin’s visit, Russia signed a $16.5 billion deal through Rosatom to build Kazakhstan’s first commercial nuclear power plant, with Moscow reportedly financing roughly 85% of the project through export loans. Putin is calling it the creation of an entire Russian-linked nuclear industry inside Kazakhstan. The two countries also signed a ruble-tenge currency swap arrangement, further deepening financial coordination as Western sanctions continue reshaping Eurasian trade and payment systems.
Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions
Germany’s new Canadian LNG deal adds more evidence to the notion that Europe is not treating the Middle East conflict as a temporary setback. Berlin’s decision to secure long-term LNG supply from Canada’s planned Ksi Lisims export terminal comes as Germany has already spent years trying to replace Russian pipeline gas. SEFE, the German company signing the deal, was formerly Gazprom Germania before Berlin nationalized it during the European energy crisis. The volumes of the Canada deal are relatively modest at roughly one million tonnes annually, but impactful in terms of Europe’s hunt for non-Middle Eastern supply (and non-Russian).
Discovery & Development
ExxonMobil is moving ahead with what will be its 9th major development inside Guyana’s Stabroek Block. The new Haimara project expands beyond crude production into a much larger standalone gas strategy, with plans including up to 1.5 billion cubic feet per day of gas production in addition to condensate output. The Environmental Protection Agency has now required a full environmental impact assessment for Haimara, citing potentially significant environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Even so, Exxon continues treating Guyana as one of the most strategically important growth engines in its global portfolio due to the basin’s exceptionally low production costs, high resource quality, and long reserve life.
Bangladesh is overhauling its offshore energy strategy after its previous Bay of Bengal licensing round failed to attract a single international bidder. The new 2026 framework sharply lowers qualification thresholds, reduces entry costs, widens tax exemptions, and introduces new pricing protections in an effort to pull mid-sized offshore operators into one of the region’s last largely underexplored frontier basins. Dhaka is now opening all 26 offshore blocks simultaneously, including both shallow-water and deepwater acreage, while abandoning the rigid structure that previously limited participation mostly to global supermajors. The revised framework also introduces floor-and-ceiling gas pricing tied to Brent crude, allows companies to bid on adjacent deepwater blocks under one contract, and even offers higher profit-sharing terms for companies that continue drilling after dry wells.
Cheniere is moving ahead with another major expansion of U.S. LNG export capacity, signing a major EPC contract with Bechtel for the first phase of its Sabine Pass expansion project in Louisiana, which alone is expected to add more than 6 million tonnes per annum of LNG capacity. The full, eventual buildout could add roughly 20 mtpa across multiple new liquefaction trains. Europe remains highly dependent on LNG after the collapse of Russian pipeline imports, while the Iran war and ongoing instability around Hormuz are reinforcing fears about future supply security across both Europe and Asia.
