As the so-far disastrously slow Aston Martin gets its first performance upgrade in Hungary this weekend, what should our expectations be?
Although Adrian Newey stresses that the core structure is the same, that’s just the skeleton of the car.
Here’s how the car has performed so far relative both to the front and the Q1/Q2 cut-off time.
But if we take just the last four races, the Aston has averaged 4.5sec off pole and 2.1sec off making Q2.
How much of that can the upgraded Honda power unit (due to debut at Zandvoort immediately after the break) find?
As the so-far disastrously slow Aston Martin gets its first performance upgrade in Hungary this weekend, what should our expectations be?
First of all, it’s a very significant reworking of the car. Although Adrian Newey stresses that the core structure is the same, that’s just the skeleton of the car.
The surfaces the air is going to see are very different. It’s also going to be close to the weight limit rather than 10-15kg over it. But the other important point is that it will not get its matching new Honda power unit until after the summer break.
Here’s how the car has performed so far relative both to the front and the Q1/Q2 cut-off time.
Circuit % off pole % off Q2 cut-off time Melbourne 4.4 0.9 China 3.4 0.7 Suzuka 4.3 1.9 Miami 3.8 1.4 Montreal 3.6 0.6 Monaco 4.6 0.9 Barcelona 5.5 2.4 Austria 5.8 2.5 Silverstone 5.4 2.5 Spa 5.4 2.9
There are a couple of striking trends within those numbers. One is the step change in how less competitive the car has been since Barcelona, a reflection of how much everyone else is developing their cars as the Aston spec has remained frozen. The other is how Q2 is now so much further away than at the beginning of the season, at 0.9% off in Melbourne vs 2.9% adrift around Spa.
Converting those percentages to global lap time deficits, the Aston has averaged 3.8sec off pole (at 1min 27.08sec compared to the Mercedes at 1min 23.29sec). But if we take just the last four races, the Aston has averaged 4.5sec off pole and 2.1sec off making Q2.
If the car has been running at 15kg over the weight limit so far and that has now all been shaved off, that’s worth around 0.45sec. Meaning the aero upgrade will need to find around 1.65sec to put the car into Q2.
Is that feasible? Given the scale of the upgrade and how far off the original car has been, it’s just about on the outer edge of it, yes. “We’re predicting a large step,” said Newey last week. “But I’m reluctant to put numbers on it.”
Newey said the Hungary update was just the first part of a multi-step strategy.
“It’s only part of the package, so we’ll have some more steps in Zandvoort and then further steps in Monza, Baku,” Newey said in Hungary on Friday.
“So it’s the first part of our planned upgrade. We are very short on parts so we’re being careful with it and trying to learn all about it.
“It’s an evolution in as much as the chassis is the same, the layout’s the same, front suspension’s the same,” he added. “So it’s very much an aerodynamic evolution. We were very short on time, research time, prior to launch of the car back in at Barcelona in February, so it’s really been a matter of taking a step back, trying to understand and go forward with this package.”
If that 1.65sec improvement is achieved, that would still leave it around 2.8/2.9sec adrift of the front. How much of that can the upgraded Honda power unit (due to debut at Zandvoort immediately after the break) find?
