"We don't want you going to Canada to spend the money, we don't want you going to China, to Germany.
(AFP) The President gave no detail on how the payments would be funded or how their in-country use would be tracked.
Vice-president JD Vance told Fox News after the speech that the payments would be "fundamentally a dividend for American workers" that may be drawn from tariff revenue.
Even on the most generous of these figures, tariff receipts would cover roughly a third of the $1.2 trillion promise.
But legal specialists said Trump's offer would likely fall outside that prohibition because it goes to every adult citizen regardless of vote.
Speaking at the first Republican midterm convention in Dallas on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said he would issue a "Trump dividend" of $5,000 to every adult American citizen if his party held on to the House of Representatives and the Senate on November 3. "We don't want you going to Canada to spend the money, we don't want you going to China, to Germany. You gotta spend the money in the United States of America," Trump said. US President Donald Trump speaks during the second day of the Republican National Committee midterm convention at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas on September 10, 2026. (AFP) The President gave no detail on how the payments would be funded or how their in-country use would be tracked. Vice-president JD Vance told Fox News after the speech that the payments would be "fundamentally a dividend for American workers" that may be drawn from tariff revenue. US Treasury bonds barely moved in response to the promise. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury ticked up to 4.91% the next day, suggesting that investors likely treated the offer as a campaign line. The arithmetic According to the US Census Bureau, the number of adult US citizens are about 240 million, which would take the total cost of such a 'dividend' – if it were to materialise – to $1.2 trillion.
The scale of this promise becomes clearer when held up to three benchmarks. The first is tariff revenue, which Vance said would fund the plan. Reuters, citing the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), said the government has taken in $167 billion in tariff receipts so far in the fiscal year ending September 30. The New York Times put the figure at about $330 billion since the start of Trump's second term in January 2025, with refunds ongoing after the US Supreme Court struck down several tariffs earlier this year. The BBC, citing the Bipartisan Policy Center, reported a higher gross figure of about $475 billion in tariff and excise tax revenue since January 2025, with more than $100 billion already refunded after the Supreme Court's decision. Even on the most generous of these figures, tariff receipts would cover roughly a third of the $1.2 trillion promise. The second benchmark is the federal budget deficit. The CBO estimates the government will spend $2.1 trillion more than it collects in the current fiscal year, Reuters reported, and expects that gap to widen. US's national debt recently passed $40 trillion, according to Bloomberg. The third is the Covid-19 stimulus. Congress approved three rounds of direct payments in March 2020, December 2020 and March 2021, phased out for higher earners. Reuters, citing a congressional oversight committee, said those payments totalled 476 million cheques worth $814 billion. Also read: Trump promises $5,000 dividend checks to US adults if Republicans win both House & Senate in midterms The path through Congress
Congress controls federal spending under Article I of the US Constitution. (File Photo)
The President cannot unilaterally approve the payments. Under Article I of the US Constitution, the US Congress holds spending authority. Republicans control both chambers by narrow margins, but Democrats can block most legislation in the Senate, where 60 votes are needed to advance a bill. Republicans have used a budget reconciliation process to bypass Democrats twice since January 2025, but a third such package has stalled. Another hurdle may be the lack of time. The House is scheduled to sit for only a week before November 3, when the midterm elections are due, leaving the main legislative window for the 'dividend' for after the polling. Is it legal? Federal US law bars payments intended to influence how a person votes. But legal specialists said Trump's offer would likely fall outside that prohibition because it goes to every adult citizen regardless of vote. "A promise to lower taxes also gives voters a financial reason to support a candidate, but that does not, by itself, make the promise a bribe," John Day, a former New Mexico prosecutor, told the New York Times. Day added, "Under the proposal as announced, an eligible adult could vote Democratic, or not vote at all, and still receive the same payment if the programme were enacted." The US Supreme Court, in its 1982 ruling in Brown vs Hartlage case, had unanimously distinguished broad fiscal promises from vote-buying. A pattern
Trump had floated a similar DOGE-funded payout, which did not materialise. (AP)
